Movies · resolved market
Will Lexi Howard die in Euphoria: Season 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9121e8c618c5bda91192f6c4f76a5179bbd43cf250967948b10f9aa7f8c3131d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 7c | 3,935$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.79 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,817$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.42 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 6c | 1,776$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.11 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…81ddbacked Yes | 3c | 985.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Yes | 5c | 925.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 858.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 10c | 825.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.01 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a96…4e13backed No | 78c | 744.19$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 11c | 721.11$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.98 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7d…8ee2backed Yes | 8c | 664.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…ed9ebacked Yes | 26c | 620$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed Yes | 6c | 609.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe264…60a4backed Yes | 5c | 470$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 404.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 89 | 4.5%4 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 5c | 400.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 370.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 11c | 118.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 79c | 19.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lexi Howard die in Euphoria: Season 3?this page
- Will Cal Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?No won
- Will Elliot die in Euphoria: Season 3?No won
- Will Ethan Daley die in Euphoria: Season 3?No won
- Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3?No won
- Will Jules Vaughn die in Euphoria: Season 3?No won
- Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?No won
- Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?Yes won
- Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.