TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$122,510
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$90,397

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,510 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes13c12,351$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,645.14229.1%2 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-66.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x842b…b366backed Yes13c8,123$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,021.291520%3 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes19c5,067$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.698332.5%27 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9469…dd71backed Yes3c4,094$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x750d…c7f2backed Yes5c3,278$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.87333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed3a…3047backed Yes7c1,956$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9360%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc219…02ecbacked Yes8c1,805$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3811…1d6dbacked Yes4c1,643$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes14c1,461$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.49567.1%4 W · 52 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-79.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd416…d9e2backed Yes3c1,410$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.15044%22 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No78c1,328$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.074544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe264…60a4backed Yes11c1,227$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.51825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed Yes8c1,200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902814.3%4 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes17c1,182$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.223130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c1,137$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.151,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d5b…7744backed No76c918.23$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.231154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cce…aa6fbacked Yes7c891.88$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes5c859.57$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.95490%0 W · 49 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa02d…5f3bbacked Yes12c845.42$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf145…8ecebacked Yes12c655.28$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c530.12$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.892013.5%7 W · 194 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes10c498$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.932123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes5c488.14$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.34472.1%1 W · 46 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-78%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31e7…bcd3backed Yes3c466.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.29250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+81.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes5c437.93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.04894.5%4 W · 85 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80a6…05b6backed Yes6c428.32$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a4c…5ff7backed Yes7c425.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa224…5addbacked Yes10c414.08$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201231.6%2 W · 121 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-69.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.42042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c6…d759backed Yes23c399.6$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes8c385.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4622030.5%67 W · 153 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e84…8f7bbacked Yes8c368.02$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad67…d6e0backed Yes6c338.52$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.550%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x272d…9e36backed Yes8c330.37$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.082944.8%13 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-28.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x89f0…1e62backed Yes8c324.38$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.371741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeecb…a593backed Yes6c283.34$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f62…a670backed Yes9c261.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes5c255.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.61533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-56.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2940…304cbacked Yes11c248.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3130%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f4c…dea6backed Yes5c241.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes10c235.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.63636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes8c218$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.91741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1a5…d228backed Yes12c216.38$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.97214.8%1 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick12cpaid-72%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes20c210.88$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.342516%4 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes12c202.06$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.481612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes7c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.641947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdab5…95a1backed No54c197.08$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaccb…5b2ebacked No54c196.63$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca45…8af9backed No54c194.12$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x232c…2dfebacked No54c190.9$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b2f…fcdcbacked No54c190.69$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e94…21b8backed No54c190.61$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…eeeabacked No54c189.56$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eb7…f452backed No54c189.38$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f58…7becbacked No54c187.97$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x333c…fe96backed No54c187.92$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50ef…e9fbbacked No54c187.64$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe147…06d2backed No54c187.15$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c9c…467dbacked No54c187.14$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33b2…0cb6backed No54c187.05$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c3d…6ddbbacked No54c186.91$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76c7…28aebacked No54c186.88$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde23…6f34backed No54c186.57$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90a0…0579backed No54c185.63$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b26…10c6backed No54c185.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0d…1100backed No54c185.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0843…d4c8backed No54c184.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb479…cdcabacked No54c184.95$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1469…3a8abacked No54c184.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe246…4471backed No54c184.55$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x512c…3ff5backed No54c183.85$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1fb…6a96backed No54c183.59$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8626…acc2backed No54c183.14$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ff0…053cbacked No54c183.04$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a8…865abacked Yes9c183$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0750%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec2a…ce7fbacked No54c182.9$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b3…fda5backed No54c182.76$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd032…36e0backed No54c182.61$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c7a…13f0backed No54c182.48$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4944…c3d8backed No54c181.35$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes9c181$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.24626.1%12 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fb7…50b4backed No54c180.84$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc403…9198backed No54c180.59$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b1a…afd2backed No54c180.47$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce86…d315backed No54c180.42$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ca0…8be9backed No54c179.72$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29d0…ceb7backed No54c179.7$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8409…546ebacked No54c179.18$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa285…87a5backed No54c178.67$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5baa…15e2backed No54c178.45$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc526…c973backed No54c178.43$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3227…6df7backed No54c178.21$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa876…ed40backed No54c178.16$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4475…c0a9backed Yes14c178.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44df…7855backed No54c178.04$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67b1…65bfbacked No54c178.02$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f0f…820bbacked No54c177.77$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x533a…1676backed No54c177.48$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x398e…1cb4backed No54c177.32$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.