Movies · resolved market
Will Jules Vaughn die in Euphoria: Season 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1da7aca33abbb2e62493bd43feda72d723888a83979cb166d68abce04794b7db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c5e…37b3backed Yes | 15c | 1,058$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…0e56backed Yes | 2c | 699.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…395ebacked Yes | 26c | 616$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.16 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70e7…4a70backed No | 74c | 616$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Yes | 33c | 428.85$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.48 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 10c | 418.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 70c | 386.5$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.58 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 242.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…bcb4backed No | 53c | 209.68$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2c…dfc5backed No | 53c | 201.01$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa576…e2bfbacked No | 53c | 200.13$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f05…b8debacked No | 53c | 199.06$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe5…d4bfbacked No | 53c | 197.36$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9695…46fdbacked No | 53c | 196.83$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0240…3862backed No | 53c | 195.3$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…1d41backed No | 53c | 194.8$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc71…b45bbacked No | 53c | 194.79$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd70…b4b4backed No | 53c | 194.14$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…e03bbacked No | 53c | 193.33$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d20…fd3dbacked No | 53c | 190.53$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x403a…2c78backed No | 53c | 187.53$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ae…dbe2backed No | 53c | 183.5$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e6…3544backed No | 53c | 182.98$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 77c | 178$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 173.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe264…60a4backed Yes | 29c | 133$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed Yes | 32c | 120.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a65…5864backed Yes | 12c | 102.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…1346backed No | 51c | 93.27$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +37%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 90.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…83a4backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 73c | 67.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325c…ffb9backed No | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4c…5ff7backed Yes | 29c | 50.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…c61fbacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x395f…bd17backed Yes | 46c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 56c | 28.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x382d…578fbacked No | 54c | 25.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 51c | 23.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 76c | 21.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f60…a419backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jules Vaughn die in Euphoria: Season 3?this page
- Will Cal Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?No won
- Will Elliot die in Euphoria: Season 3?No won
- Will Ethan Daley die in Euphoria: Season 3?No won
- Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3?No won
- Will Lexi Howard die in Euphoria: Season 3?No won
- Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?No won
- Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?Yes won
- Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.