Movies · resolved market
Will Cal Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf530b2b6339922008935a59da78d4ca76962e919950e7079669c2db3cdc031c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 11c | 2,453$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.96 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5e…37b3backed Yes | 9c | 1,747$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe264…60a4backed Yes | 8c | 1,742$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,403$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.52 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…2d3bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,395$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb08b…4b55backed Yes | 8c | 1,203$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 22c | 877.34$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8724…c252backed No | 49c | 429.45$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 8c | 408.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 266 | 6.4%17 W · 249 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47d1…61b1backed No | 49c | 407.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ea…2d16backed Yes | 51c | 398.22$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e2…2c78backed Yes | 51c | 396.03$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf95a…1015backed Yes | 51c | 395.41$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9c…38ffbacked Yes | 51c | 394.62$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 16c | 393.3$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3815…0a80backed No | 49c | 391.84$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 16c | 388.8$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd72…98fbbacked Yes | 51c | 388.75$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…ff59backed No | 49c | 372.55$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf5…3eb5backed No | 49c | 371.37$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 11c | 355.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a85…98a3backed No | 50c | 325.56$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f1…d2edbacked No | 50c | 325.54$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…3bd6backed No | 50c | 325.54$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db4…81dabacked No | 50c | 325.54$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8216…501bbacked No | 50c | 325.52$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ad…2289backed No | 50c | 325.52$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 60c | 320$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.92 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 307$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 13c | 255.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 14c | 239.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 231.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb19a…3808backed Yes | 14c | 210.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…5844backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 8c | 191.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe091…1cb6backed Yes | 6c | 170.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 62c | 113.97$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…1346backed No | 56c | 80.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +37%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Yes | 23c | 79.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb6…6373backed Yes | 19c | 73.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 37c | 69.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a2…f005backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed Yes | 25c | 47.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 29c | 40.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe751…5a2abacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4a…b608backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe551…2e76backed Yes | 45c | 22.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 21.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…c61fbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 64c | 18.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -14.8wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xff0f…c5efbacked No | 54c | 18.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 56c | 18.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cal Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?this page
- Will Elliot die in Euphoria: Season 3?No won
- Will Ethan Daley die in Euphoria: Season 3?No won
- Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3?No won
- Will Jules Vaughn die in Euphoria: Season 3?No won
- Will Lexi Howard die in Euphoria: Season 3?No won
- Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?No won
- Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?Yes won
- Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.