TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe551…2e76

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
82
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: NBA, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 56 out of 100; worst Movies at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT4470.5%31 W · 13 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 44 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.54
Pelicans vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$35.72
Raptors vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$23.49
Thunder vs. Celticsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.27
Nuggets vs. Sunsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$24.89
Lakers vs. Pistonsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.75
Spurs vs. Heatbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$19.38
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+28.5%+$12.36
Lakers vs. Magicbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$17.79
Hawks vs. Rocketsbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Warriors vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$8.71
Suns vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+25%+$11
Magic vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$8.88
Hawks vs. Mavericksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$12
Thunder vs. Magicbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+25%+$10
Spurs vs. Clippersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$12.27
Hornets vs. Spursbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Bucks vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$7.68
Timberwolves vs. Warriorsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$12.24
Suns vs. Raptorsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.61
Suns vs. Pacersbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$8.28
Hornets vs. Trail Blazersbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+69.8%+$17.44
Suns vs. Bucksbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$13.3
Mavericks vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$12.86
Knicks vs. Lakersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.68
Showing 25 of 44 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+22.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.87
England vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$19.5
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$15.94
Spain vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$16.36
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$23.75
Portugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Brazil vs. Norway: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$18.5
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$15.96
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$9.44
All 10 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Roland Garros WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Solana Sierrabacked Jasmine Paolini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.95
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wangbacked Hailey Baptiste · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Credit One Charleston Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Dalma Galfibacked Bianca Andreescu · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$36.9
Sao Leopoldo: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Hugo Dellienbacked Hugo Dellien · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+31.8%+$9.4
Bucharest Open, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Jay Clarkebacked Alex Molcan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+50.4%+$30.93
Sao Leopoldo: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Valerio Aboianbacked Gonzalo Villanueva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$23.22
Credit One Charleston Open: Darja Vidmanova vs Anna Bondarbacked Darja Vidmanova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.69
Bucharest Open, Qualification: Stefan Haita vs Joel Schwaerzlerbacked Stefan Haita · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Bucharest Open, Qualification: George Loffhagen vs Jurij Rodionovbacked George Loffhagen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.18
BNP Paribas Open: Quentin Halys vs Adam Waltonbacked Quentin Halys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Movies — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+77.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$99.47
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$253.48
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$625Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+38%+$237.76
GPT-5.4 released by March 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+37%+$27
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.17
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+67.8%+$28.69
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Boeing (BA) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+203%+$27.53
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+130.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Solstice launch a token by March 31 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+130.9%+$54.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Matt Pinnell replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$233.68
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.