TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Mavericks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hawksof Hawks, Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,795,015

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,795,015 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 818 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1bc0…4429backed Mavericks25c380,000$95,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95,499.9548343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Hawks75c276,213$207,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,053.1536549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked Hawks74c194,080$144,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,521.8411955.5%66 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Mavericks26c192,307$50,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,999.8143542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x969f…4d55backed Hawks74c174,588$129,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,392.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick73cpaid+38%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacae…6798backed Mavericks26c65,017$16,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,904.411241.1%46 W · 66 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Hawks74c45,220$33,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,909.291,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Mavericks9c41,602$3,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,660.061,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2fd1…e532backed Hawks77c38,102$29,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,768.633268.8%22 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Mavericks26c35,331$9,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,185.9641832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Mavericks22c31,187$6,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,777.3320744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mavericks25c29,863$7,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,480.164,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Mavericks22c26,428$5,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,741.9277348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Mavericks1c26,165$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.765213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Mavericks26c20,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,2001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Mavericks26c20,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,2001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Mavericks26c20,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,199.981,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Mavericks2c19,148$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.641,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Mavericks25c16,572$4,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,142.9515952.2%83 W · 76 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Hawks76c16,499$12,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,959.6926353.6%141 W · 122 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Mavericks25c16,268$4,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,06739842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hawks76c15,877$12,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,810.565,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa491…3177backed Hawks74c15,639$11,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,066.055959.3%35 W · 24 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Hawks76c14,917$11,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,580.171,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hawks76c14,373$10,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,390.239,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed Hawks75c13,333$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,333.3310952.3%57 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61e0…4b62backed Hawks76c13,158$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,157.8952760%316 W · 211 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Hawks75c11,982$9,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,980.7934851.7%180 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Hawks77c11,295$8,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,560.994,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aee…fad4backed Mavericks27c11,111$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0003729.7%11 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Mavericks26c10,710$2,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,784.541,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81f0…cbb1backed Hawks75c10,204$7,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,551.088765.5%57 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Mavericks1c10,067$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5364517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Hawks74c10,000$7,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,600.0323257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Hawks74c10,000$7,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,60061851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Hawks76c10,000$7,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0416…9b31backed Mavericks25c9,176$2,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2941752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Mavericks11c8,083$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.642,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Hawks75c7,477$5,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,901.644,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Hawks80c7,260$5,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,454.231,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks7c6,836$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.278,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Mavericks12c6,645$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.431,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Mavericks9c6,498$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.211,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Mavericks0c6,093$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.398820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf2c…097cbacked Hawks76c6,000$4,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4403177.4%24 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa0f9…f569backed Mavericks24c6,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.981838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Mavericks7c5,418$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4023,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x759c…5f4bbacked Hawks74c5,416$4,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,408.16475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8000…3a21backed Mavericks29c5,000$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,425.0325947.5%123 W · 136 L+14.5wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb714…eb1bbacked Hawks75c5,000$3,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdccd…a16bbacked Mavericks24c5,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Mavericks1c4,700$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.53179.5%30 W · 287 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Mavericks25c4,500$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10565939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Mavericks25c4,500$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.9986641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Mavericks1c4,446$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.344573.5%16 W · 441 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96dd…17febacked Hawks75c4,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0008661.6%53 W · 33 L+8.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x76ab…506dbacked Hawks75c4,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0004551.1%23 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaef…e17dbacked Mavericks25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005032%16 W · 34 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Mavericks25c4,000$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98443438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f5…c161backed Mavericks8c3,929$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30011440.4%46 W · 68 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Hawks74c3,865$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.44,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Mavericks8c3,622$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.913,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Mavericks26c3,342$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86933735.3%119 W · 218 L+1.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4870…85f7backed Hawks76c3,300$2,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7924445.5%20 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0441…b3aabacked Mavericks24c3,300$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.968441.7%35 W · 49 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda2e…8904backed Mavericks27c3,246$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8749343%40 W · 53 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Hawks73c3,233$2,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.5939349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Hawks79c3,170$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.824151.9%125 W · 116 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a73…e1adbacked Mavericks26c3,138$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8163627.8%10 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Mavericks0c3,124$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.698783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Mavericks26c3,050$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7931,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Mavericks26c3,044$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.5438143%164 W · 217 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c49…dd2dbacked Hawks75c3,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75020048%96 W · 104 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Mavericks26c2,885$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75020945.5%95 W · 114 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4e6…4a4dbacked Hawks75c2,821$2,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.336258.1%36 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0e8…2525backed Hawks76c2,650$2,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.11060%6 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Mavericks0c2,638$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.821,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Mavericks24c2,524$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.6861336.1%221 W · 392 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Mavericks26c2,500$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65064944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Mavericks24c2,482$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.4748944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Mavericks25c2,395$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.2310236.3%37 W · 65 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-5.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ce…a992backed Mavericks3c2,320$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-73.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4650…f3f0backed Hawks78c2,134$1,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.0918452.7%97 W · 87 L+12.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f82…9b01backed Hawks76c2,100$1,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50416635.5%59 W · 107 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Hawks74c2,027$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.023,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd8c2…39edbacked Mavericks25c2,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49010635.8%38 W · 68 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Hawks75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50041954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe24f…d68abacked Mavericks26c1,962$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5103345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Hawks75c1,890$1,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.042,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7eb…eb13backed Hawks75c1,692$1,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.11944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick64cpaid-37.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Mavericks14c1,652$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.4542153%223 W · 198 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d2a…9ee3backed Hawks76c1,533$1,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.8385248.9%417 W · 435 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35c8…90cbbacked Mavericks26c1,488$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3875244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea8…b084backed Mavericks24c1,485$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.413435.8%48 W · 86 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Hawks75c1,469$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.3428554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Mavericks14c1,455$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.0426336.5%96 W · 167 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Mavericks25c1,419$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.751,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69c2…40cfbacked Mavericks16c1,391$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22148132.6%157 W · 324 L-2.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x766b…e4ffbacked Mavericks23c1,332$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003852.6%20 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Hawks72c1,294$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.5860549.8%301 W · 304 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.