NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hawks (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf76b39c3f186eab5e866aecc3e9fbf166b621550dcba749a5fe1562369ed94a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Hawks, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,915 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfecb…19babacked Hawks | 52c | 20,575$10,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,800.36 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Mavericks | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 46c | 8,725$4,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,051.12 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hawks | 53c | 5,182$2,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,437.71 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Mavericks | 48c | 4,568$2,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,192.59 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…5a44backed Mavericks | 1c | 2,880$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Mavericks | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.99 | 649 | 44.7%290 W · 359 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d2…ad14backed Hawks | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.11 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebba…383cbacked Mavericks | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 240 | 50.8%122 W · 118 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Mavericks | 45c | 875.2$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.84 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Mavericks | 46c | 613.31$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.36 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Mavericks | 46c | 499.98$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Mavericks | 49c | 490$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.1 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Hawks | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 255 | 59.2%151 W · 104 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2841…3c5abacked Mavericks | 44c | 300$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.07 | 213 | 49.3%105 W · 108 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Hawks | 54c | 218.24$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.41 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Hawks | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 619 | 57.5%356 W · 263 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…b357backed Hawks | 55c | 194.49$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.52 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…9a2bbacked Hawks | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Mavericks | 46c | 183.51$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Mavericks | 41c | 180.53$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Hawks | 53c | 153$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.91 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Hawks | 56c | 148.71$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.22 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Mavericks | 47c | 141.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.63 | 398 | 42.5%169 W · 229 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Hawks | 61c | 141.5$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Mavericks | 47c | 138.29$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.48 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Mavericks | 46c | 133$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Hawks | 54c | 130$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 375 | 49.6%186 W · 189 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Hawks | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354f…95f8backed Hawks | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2e…3ef0backed Hawks | 54c | 114.96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 263 | 45.6%120 W · 143 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…aa01backed Hawks | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 384 | 64.3%247 W · 137 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…7857backed Hawks | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62a…8abebacked Mavericks | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Hawks | 54c | 77.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mavericks | 46c | 76.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…038ebacked Mavericks | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Hawks | 57c | 55.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Mavericks | 45c | 54.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Mavericks | 49c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Hawks | 54c | 47.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Hawks | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Mavericks | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…b56cbacked Hawks | 54c | 35.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 373 | 44.2%165 W · 208 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Mavericks | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…ab22backed Mavericks | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Hawks | 54c | 28.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Hawks | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Mavericks | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05f…91d5backed Hawks | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawks (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-4.5)Hawks won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Hawks vs. MavericksHawks won
- Hawks vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Mavericks: O/U 238.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Mavericks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-9.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.