TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Mavericks: O/U 238.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$165,507

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,507 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over51c25,000$12,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,249.981,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under49c22,322$10,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,944.939,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd2c…0351backed Over50c20,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,0001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf124…9b92backed Under50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over51c6,689$3,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,288.381,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4244…03a6backed Under49c5,493$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70018349.2%90 W · 93 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb6f…2653backed Under49c5,102$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50016249.4%80 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked Over51c4,118$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,017.654535.6%16 W · 29 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over58c3,901$2,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,645.22,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under49c3,844$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,890.414,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf24d…aaf7backed Under50c3,044$1,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,52220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe134…f66cbacked Under50c3,037$1,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,518.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2751…d327backed Under50c3,030$1,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,515250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a0…ce09backed Over50c2,998$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4992100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4284…db45backed Over50c2,995$1,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,497.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x988a…9edcbacked Over50c2,991$1,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,495.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc23…8954backed Under50c2,979$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,489.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0251…b34ebacked Over50c2,978$1,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4892100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e0b…22efbacked Under50c2,957$1,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,478.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb7f…3f9cbacked Under50c2,952$1,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,476250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d3…cf42backed Under50c2,948$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7db6…e202backed Over50c2,939$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6849…012dbacked Over50c2,929$1,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,464.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e1…fc5abacked Over50c2,928$1,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,464250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bc5…21bbbacked Over50c2,919$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,459.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x920e…9062backed Over50c2,919$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,459.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47e4…6213backed Under50c2,908$1,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,454250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x010d…311cbacked Under50c2,887$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,443.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0499…1406backed Under50c2,886$1,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,443250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cc9…250abacked Over50c2,878$1,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97cc…bb9fbacked Over50c2,867$1,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,433.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4401…08fabacked Under50c2,867$1,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,433.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8ce…d4abbacked Over50c2,864$1,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4322100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cb7…ffe0backed Under50c2,849$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,424.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00b8…48b5backed Under50c2,831$1,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,415.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fe9…72aebacked Over50c2,808$1,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4042100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e0a…9d5fbacked Under50c2,766$1,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,38320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1a9…fb9abacked Under50c2,759$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x911d…a397backed Under50c2,756$1,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,37820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf529…21d4backed Over50c2,745$1,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,372.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x263b…763dbacked Over50c2,731$1,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,365.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3694…f8d2backed Under50c2,723$1,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,361.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeb8…86c2backed Over50c2,723$1,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,361.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cca…6ee6backed Under50c2,716$1,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cda…93b9backed Over50c2,712$1,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3562100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23d8…6fb5backed Over50c2,704$1,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3522100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c0f…cfa1backed Under50c2,699$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6869…3832backed Over50c2,692$1,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,345.94250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd765…a56ebacked Over50c2,684$1,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,342250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcae0…8603backed Over50c2,673$1,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,336.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c4e…03f1backed Over50c2,665$1,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,332.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2db9…9167backed Under50c2,665$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,332.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcb7…e5f0backed Over50c2,651$1,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0dc5…6d90backed Under50c2,643$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb2f…b548backed Over50c2,642$1,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3212100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x59fd…ceddbacked Over50c2,636$1,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3182100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa220…b009backed Under50c2,624$1,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,312250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab7c…8e99backed Over50c2,623$1,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,311.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac87…9db4backed Under50c2,607$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,303.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8546…82fbbacked Under50c2,604$1,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1eb7…3064backed Under50c2,599$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeee3…abb7backed Under50c2,552$1,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,276250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under49c2,327$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.914,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under49c2,312$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.671,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under49c2,267$1,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,108.878,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over51c2,015$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.923,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Over50c1,805$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.558347%274 W · 309 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under33c1,777$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.273,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7412…85d0backed Over51c1,737$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.3626544.9%119 W · 146 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over49c1,663$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.274,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68d8…4cc6backed Over51c1,544$786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.9414455.6%80 W · 64 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2579…9d48backed Over51c1,533$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.3319359.6%115 W · 78 L+14.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0d2…ad14backed Under51c1,176$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60014450.7%73 W · 71 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4823…a48bbacked Over55c1,160$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.691275%9 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+51.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under49c1,140$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.133,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over54c1,022$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.852,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb307…be4abacked Under51c980.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50018842.6%80 W · 108 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Over53c889.13$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.4726336.5%96 W · 167 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Under51c800$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40861740.7%251 W · 366 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f56…4ec1backed Over40c800$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick54cpaid+53.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under41c790.24$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.6265872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under49c789.45$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.894,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Over62c374.11$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.1326337.3%98 W · 165 L-1.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under50c364.15$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.083,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over52c356.98$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.3589048.8%434 W · 456 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Under50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15025559.2%151 W · 104 L+13.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Under46c294.89$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.0242153%223 W · 198 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Under46c264.77$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12291846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed Under51c254.9$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13023446.2%108 W · 126 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Over52c249.25$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.5765542.9%281 W · 374 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Under57c218.58$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe11c…c7f7backed Over52c208.02$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.859260.9%56 W · 36 L+10.3wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+22.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Over56c165.9$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.7752053.3%277 W · 243 L+29.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Under51c156.86$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8023657.2%135 W · 101 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Under51c120.78$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611,66150.3%836 W · 825 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8441…7925backed Over55c117$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.218261%111 W · 71 L+16.2wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over58c106.11$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2190357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under48c104.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.292,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Over55c103.15$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.0136154.8%198 W · 163 L+17.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.