NBA · resolved market

Spread: Hawks (-9.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc86cebcc98c42c45e80ce0ff6242991de634868326324a64c24e730954a0761

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Hawksof Hawks, Mavericks
Resolved: Mar 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $161,478
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $162,067

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,478 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4924…3782backed Hawks	46c	131,214$60,359 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70,855.66	874	51.5%450 W · 424 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Mavericks	54c	127,066$68,616 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68,615.77	871	44.7%389 W · 482 L	+14.9wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks	52c	8,156$4,251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,250.81	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Hawks	45c	4,000$1,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,200	114	52.6%60 W · 54 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Hawks	52c	2,749$1,437 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,311.95	282	45.4%128 W · 154 L	+7.8wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Hawks	45c	2,384$1,073 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,311.42	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Mavericks	54c	2,337$1,258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,258.31	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Hawks	61c	2,265$1,387 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$878.01	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f82…9b01backed Hawks	46c	2,039$938 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,101.63	166	35.5%59 W · 107 L	-8.4wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Mavericks	55c	1,730$952 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$951.5	142	45.8%65 W · 77 L	-5.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Mavericks	55c	1,527$840 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$839.85	2,753	50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L	+47.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Mavericks	39c	1,411$554 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$554.02	263	36.5%96 W · 167 L	-9.1wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Mavericks	55c	893.87$492 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$492.13	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hawks	44c	768.99$338 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$430.64	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Hawks	45c	735.99$331 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$404.8	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Hawks	45c	692.85$312 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$381.07	1,915	49.3%944 W · 971 L	+19.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e2c…d5cdbacked Hawks	56c	620$345 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$274.6	52	63.5%33 W · 19 L	+4.7wins	+0.09per pick	54cpaid	+23.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Mavericks	55c	566$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.3	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Mavericks	56c	535.71$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	909	57.6%524 W · 385 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Mavericks	55c	500$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275	331	46.2%153 W · 178 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Mavericks	54c	440.27$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.75	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x443d…017fbacked Mavericks	55c	420$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231	235	50.2%118 W · 117 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb178…1fa0backed Mavericks	56c	359.8$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	34	44.1%15 W · 19 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-21%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Mavericks	44c	342.19$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152	88	26.1%23 W · 65 L	-12.5wins	-0.14per pick	40cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Hawks	46c	306$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165.24	456	46.7%213 W · 243 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Hawks	47c	305.12$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.77	514	38.7%199 W · 315 L	-29.6wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x480e…90c7backed Mavericks	55c	270.78$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.93	154	46.8%72 W · 82 L	-12.0wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1b73…45d9backed Mavericks	55c	235.25$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.39	343	42.9%147 W · 196 L	-6.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ac8…9e67backed Mavericks	35c	211$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.27	185	43.2%80 W · 105 L	-7.9wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f6a…04ebbacked Mavericks	47c	200$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	354	47.7%169 W · 185 L	-10.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Hawks	45c	199.99$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110	553	16.5%91 W · 462 L	-10.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Hawks	46c	189.78$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.33	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Mavericks	55c	184.71$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.59	249	46.6%116 W · 133 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Mavericks	48c	173.43$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.73	296	45.6%135 W · 161 L	-12.3wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Hawks	46c	153$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.62	565	47.8%270 W · 295 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks	41c	152.48$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.05	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Mavericks	55c	145.45$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	818	45.7%374 W · 444 L	+9.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Mavericks	46c	141.89$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.57	421	53%223 W · 198 L	+23.3wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Hawks	46c	130.93$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.7	765	52.9%405 W · 360 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Mavericks	19c	130$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.6	448	21.4%96 W · 352 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Hawks	57c	124.34$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.91	2,468	50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L	+38.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Mavericks	45c	114.83$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.25	2,400	43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L	-82.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Hawks	47c	111.91$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.97	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee1…268bbacked Hawks	46c	108.7$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.7	534	53.4%285 W · 249 L	+19.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9901…6adbbacked Hawks	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	138	43.5%60 W · 78 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked Mavericks	54c	100$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	101	44.6%45 W · 56 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed Hawks	47c	91.93$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.77	234	46.2%108 W · 126 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf879…820ebacked Mavericks	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	118	33.9%40 W · 78 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Hawks	56c	84.98$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.48	880	57.5%506 W · 374 L	+34.6wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Mavericks	54c	80.28$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.35	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3a25…bb6bbacked Hawks	46c	76.5$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.31	340	47.1%160 W · 180 L	-10.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Hawks	46c	76.5$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.31	572	50%286 W · 286 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x56a7…9f37backed Mavericks	55c	72.72$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	208	47.1%98 W · 110 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Hawks	44c	71.74$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.18	1,141	48%548 W · 593 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Hawks	51c	70$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.65	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ccf…9ea3backed Hawks	46c	69.97$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.78	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Hawks	49c	64.47$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.01	1,633	41.2%672 W · 961 L	+26.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Mavericks	28c	63.83$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.8	1,190	32%381 W · 809 L	-58.1wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae94…7efbbacked Mavericks	47c	60$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.2	587	54.7%321 W · 266 L	-10.9wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Hawks	50c	59.54$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.55	1,532	42.5%651 W · 881 L	-17.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Mavericks	56c	53.57$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	332	49.7%165 W · 167 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc6f…5d6fbacked Mavericks	55c	49.25$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.09	231	44.2%102 W · 129 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Mavericks	45c	40$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	596	50.3%300 W · 296 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47e7…9cc7backed Mavericks	55c	35.03$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.27	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7793…33a6backed Hawks	44c	31.36$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.56	293	44.4%130 W · 163 L	-7.5wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc57…ce71backed Mavericks	55c	30.73$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.9	96	55.2%53 W · 43 L	+6.8wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9698…de01backed Mavericks	46c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	267	57.3%153 W · 114 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Hawks	56c	29.98$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.04	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Hawks	43c	29.89$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2841…3c5abacked Mavericks	43c	29.1$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.51	213	49.3%105 W · 108 L	+6.0wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3612…cf99backed Hawks	50c	28.85$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.41	61	63.9%39 W · 22 L	+5.6wins	+0.09per pick	55cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3d57…2b4ebacked Mavericks	55c	22$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	539	45.3%244 W · 295 L	-9.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ef9…0e82backed Mavericks	55c	21.58$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.87	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-23%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd400…28b8backed Mavericks	56c	21.43$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	65cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f2d…8ca1backed Mavericks	55c	21.28$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	63	28.6%18 W · 45 L	-11.2wins	-0.18per pick	46cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed Mavericks	55c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	205	58.5%120 W · 85 L	+7.9wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Hawks	51c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	455	44.8%204 W · 251 L	+21.8wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Mavericks	56c	18$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.17	1,634	48.1%786 W · 848 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Hawks (-9.5)this page
1H Spread: Hawks (-4.5)Hawks won
Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 21.5No won
Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
Hawks vs. MavericksHawks won
Hawks vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
Hawks vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
Hawks vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5Over won
Hawks vs. Mavericks: O/U 238.5Over won
Hawks vs. Mavericks: O/U 239.5Over won
Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 13.5No won
Spread: Hawks (-7.5)Hawks won
Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Hawks won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Hawks (-9.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event