TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf879…820e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
191
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: MLB, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 56 out of 100; worst NBA at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT11833.9%40 W · 78 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-25.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 118 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Thunder (-9.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$345Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$345
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Knicks vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.22
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.67
Spread: Spurs (-10.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.08
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$188.1
Spread: Spurs (-9.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$967Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$967.47
76ers vs. Knicksbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.08
Spread: Knicks (-7.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,088Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,088.43
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spread: Pistons (-8.5)backed Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
76ers vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.09
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 203.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$73.62
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$275
Spread: Knicks (-6.5)backed Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spread: Lakers (-4.5)backed Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+100%+$97.64
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$90.15
Spread: Spurs (-12.5)backed Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.55
Spread: Knicks (-6.5)backed Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.64
Showing 25 of 118 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT6347.6%30 W · 33 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+27.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
MLB — the 63 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astrosbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$220
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)backed Houston Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$338.3
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubsbacked Cincinnati Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$588Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$587.64
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Marinersbacked Kansas City Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+617.7%+$106.52
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.24
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.49
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.16
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Soxbacked Chicago White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$44.82
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)backed Miami Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$61.07
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padresbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.44
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)backed Texas Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$80.18
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)backed Texas Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.62
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Bravesbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.88
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Soxbacked Boston Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$163.91
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royalsbacked Baltimore Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$358.36
Chicago White Sox vs. Athleticsbacked Chicago White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.05
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubsbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.36
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$744Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$773.96
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$291Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+106.5%+$309.66
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+393.6%+$374.79
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.93
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)backed Los Angeles Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$681Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$579.84
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.84
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)backed New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.35
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.51
Showing 25 of 63 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+74%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+248%+$136.59
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.02
All 2 picks, newest first.
Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cirstea vs. Gauff: Match O/U 21.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Miami Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Victoria Mbokobacked Mirra Andreeva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.61
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-6.5)backed Connecticut Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+100%+$159.97
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.