MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7133a32459f1631c542eab2c40ba00d8667ae02db8c874e79f32cced702ea856
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 50c | 10,586$5,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,292.78 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Under | 50c | 8,525$4,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,262.46 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Under | 51c | 1,523$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.48 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -17.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 33c | 1,210$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.79 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 1,054$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.88 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 444 | 51.1%227 W · 217 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…5098backed Under | 51c | 949.3$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.34 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 50c | 867.34$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.67 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 41c | 850.14$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.47 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 800.62$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.31 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 64c | 773.58$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.09 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -8.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 75c | 392.84$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.54 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf879…820ebacked Under | 35c | 272.9$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.51 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Under | 54c | 258.26$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.17 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Under | 64c | 229.31$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.76 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Over | 49c | 164.28$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.78 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 12c | 114.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.86 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 67c | 89.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Over | 68c | 85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 25c | 84.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…4db0backed Over | 50c | 65.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -26%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 45c | 58.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x959b…64edbacked Under | 51c | 48.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x225f…5978backed Over | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1c…0be3backed Under | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Under | 78c | 37.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 51c | 37.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 37c | 35.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…0f22backed Over | 50c | 32.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba8…5d91backed Over | 50c | 30.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 226 | 50.4%114 W · 112 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff6e…21cdbacked Over | 46c | 29.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 56c | 28.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 49c | 28.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a73…de17backed Over | 50c | 27.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 50c | 22.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ee…c29fbacked Over | 69c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Texas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. AthleticsTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.