MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5245b46f08b07492632bd03e5cbbcbde9194d8748212e6cd1b214888faa5d114
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Under | 58c | 3,367$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,417.48 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 42c | 2,534$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.83 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 52c | 1,530$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.41 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 43c | 468.93$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.5 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 377.52$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.57 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb007…21f2backed Under | 35c | 300.35$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 40c | 218.54$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.37 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 59c | 148.12$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.73 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 41c | 119.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 60c | 103.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 58c | 102.88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3c…dc58backed Under | 40c | 101$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 44c | 91.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 37c | 79.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Under | 62c | 78.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Under | 63c | 77.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 72c | 72.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 35c | 67.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 41c | 66.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 44c | 65.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Over | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 60c | 57.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62de…39fbbacked Over | 37c | 57.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -5.0wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -74%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 47c | 55.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 60c | 55.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 60c | 42.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 51c | 42.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 34c | 39.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Under | 62c | 39.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Over | 41c | 35.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 61c | 31.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca9…0898backed Under | 63c | 30.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 59c | 30.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 51c | 30.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f47…6397backed Under | 41c | 28.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed Under | 63c | 23.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f43…01a8backed Under | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 61c | 19.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 67c | 16.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Under | 66c | 15.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Texas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. AthleticsTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.