TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-8.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Lakers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,314,221
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,419,428

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,314,221 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 572 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Lakers47c249,765$117,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117,389.4566248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Thunder53c242,834$128,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114,131.8387451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Thunder52c235,586$123,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112,454.864,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Lakers47c138,788$65,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,030.1537627.9%105 W · 271 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Thunder51c130,000$66,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,699.9520545.9%94 W · 111 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe807…307cbacked Lakers49c60,297$29,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,545.51560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Lakers47c57,921$27,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,222.8416039.4%63 W · 97 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7e1…ec43backed Lakers47c50,000$23,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,499.98955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Lakers47c48,267$22,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,685.735744.3%158 W · 199 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Thunder53c40,000$21,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,80014538.6%56 W · 89 L-12.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Thunder53c40,000$21,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,80020758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Lakers13c29,867$3,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,920.356646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked Thunder55c29,317$16,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,317.2220352.7%107 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Thunder53c25,000$13,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,75017553.7%94 W · 81 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Thunder52c22,769$11,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,929.1115545.8%71 W · 84 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6734…2e18backed Lakers48c20,468$9,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,824.637459.5%44 W · 30 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2114…84c5backed Lakers49c20,408$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0005935.6%21 W · 38 L-8.3wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-28.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Lakers46c20,068$9,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,252.042,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Thunder51c20,050$10,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,778.5589853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1711…9ba2backed Lakers50c19,798$9,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,899425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x418d…88a3backed Lakers46c19,000$8,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,739.9910248%49 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Thunder51c16,457$8,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,086.5869848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Thunder76c15,846$12,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,792.32,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Lakers47c15,693$7,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,315.854,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf421…cff4backed Lakers49c15,102$7,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,4004042.5%17 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d5d…191dbacked Lakers49c12,592$6,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,170.085442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Lakers50c11,444$5,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,721.761,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f2a…06d9backed Lakers49c10,678$5,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,23210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Thunder53c10,363$5,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,822.0563746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Thunder53c10,357$5,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,816.6390650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Lakers47c10,322$4,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,843.0728643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Lakers46c10,024$4,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,595.1455251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Lakers47c10,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,699.9849244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7829…cfd3backed Lakers49c9,796$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,800.042842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Thunder54c8,414$4,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,870.351,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6426…ff48backed Lakers49c7,740$3,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,754.830%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8228…b2fbbacked Lakers49c7,664$3,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7404951%25 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9687…f828backed Lakers50c7,478$3,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,738.11742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Lakers50c7,231$3,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,587.0617052.4%89 W · 81 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Lakers31c6,882$2,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,165.472,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Lakers20c6,776$1,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,331.2514334.3%49 W · 94 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b0e…6257backed Lakers49c6,593$3,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,230.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Lakers46c6,309$2,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,902.1348845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb303…aad2backed Lakers50c6,122$3,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,058.5620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a6c…236dbacked Thunder54c6,000$3,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,76017055.3%94 W · 76 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Thunder50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00037539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bbd…5c97backed Thunder54c5,965$3,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,743.813256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Lakers47c5,964$2,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,824.41,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74cb…afe6backed Lakers49c5,883$2,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,880.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4244…03a6backed Lakers49c5,714$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80018349.2%90 W · 93 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x379a…5122backed Lakers49c5,678$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8003030%9 W · 21 L-5.6wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-38.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Thunder53c5,660$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,660.3811654.3%63 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Lakers16c5,577$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.271,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1da3…2f94backed Thunder54c5,569$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,569.22850%14 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fce…c02abacked Lakers14c5,531$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.35540%22 W · 33 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+54.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Thunder51c5,400$2,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,64641553.3%221 W · 194 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaef…077fbacked Lakers49c5,288$2,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,59130%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d8d…95b0backed Thunder64c5,258$3,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,874.314245.2%19 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Thunder51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,45019653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Thunder74c5,000$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,30014766%97 W · 50 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Thunder52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.991,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder52c4,364$2,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,110.824,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6323…9feebacked Lakers50c4,215$2,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,107.514441%59 W · 85 L-12.8wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-15.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lakers46c4,068$1,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,871.218,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Lakers49c4,060$1,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,970.451,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Lakers47c4,040$1,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,898.7557950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Lakers50c4,012$1,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,98824847.6%118 W · 130 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33fb…6201backed Thunder54c3,848$2,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,770.15955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Lakers48c3,750$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.997048.6%34 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Lakers48c3,736$1,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,793.591,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1d0…5a98backed Thunder76c3,707$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.244257.1%24 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Thunder60c3,483$2,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,389.5730551.5%157 W · 148 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Lakers44c3,386$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.9561638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x462d…ce9bbacked Thunder37c3,103$1,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,958.217353.4%39 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Thunder51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47016633.7%56 W · 110 L-11.6wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8716…57c8backed Lakers49c3,000$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,46040%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Lakers46c3,000$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,39050346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Lakers51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53069149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Thunder52c3,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.9756453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Lakers48c2,987$1,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,427.5930448.4%147 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Thunder51c2,941$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,441.1824151.9%125 W · 116 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Thunder53c2,830$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.1943269.2%299 W · 133 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Lakers46c2,596$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.781,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89bd…3f72backed Lakers48c2,565$1,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.311243.8%49 W · 63 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Lakers47c2,500$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17556843.8%249 W · 319 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed Lakers50c2,478$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239.0715141.1%62 W · 89 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09f4…dac0backed Lakers49c2,402$1,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,176.8816946.7%79 W · 90 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96a3…d944backed Thunder50c2,400$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2107950.6%40 W · 39 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Lakers49c2,123$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.3310539%41 W · 64 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67c4…f0a4backed Lakers47c2,106$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.78922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-51.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x08c4…e6a5backed Lakers60c2,084$1,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,253.086647%31 W · 35 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Thunder52c2,080$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.3962051.1%317 W · 303 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee96…0634backed Thunder52c2,079$1,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.746250%31 W · 31 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e8a…a5bcbacked Thunder53c2,075$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.478242.7%35 W · 47 L+0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x476d…0c42backed Lakers49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008848.9%43 W · 45 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc639…b442backed Thunder53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x844e…4efdbacked Lakers47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9405352.8%28 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+33.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09f1…8332backed Thunder60c1,977$1,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.114269%29 W · 13 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+18.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ca5…73bcbacked Thunder52c1,909$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.5440451.5%208 W · 196 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40ff…9d91backed Thunder53c1,874$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.713933.3%13 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.