NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 103.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f10ce81a9c58a53969a25bd0f817aa480897d95bca0fb26c1d5510019c27f38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Over | 51c | 6,001$3,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,940.44 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Under | 49c | 4,761$2,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,332.84 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 45c | 1,603$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.16 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Under | 49c | 612.22$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 56c | 529.2$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.82 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 49c | 454.84$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.32 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522d…3913backed Over | 55c | 414.18$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Over | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 55c | 295$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.75 | 205 | 58.5%120 W · 85 L | +19.6wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Under | 47c | 222$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.34 | 249 | 49%122 W · 127 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 72c | 184.86$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc0…099dbacked Over | 53c | 183.49$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.49 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 45c | 133.56$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…a295backed Over | 68c | 128.25$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 112 | 61.6%69 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b9…7eaabacked Under | 45c | 117.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Over | 53c | 110$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 427 | 40.3%172 W · 255 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 65c | 93.8$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…0675backed Over | 53c | 93.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 33c | 90.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551a…b3dcbacked Under | 24c | 84.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Under | 31c | 83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 249 | 36.9%92 W · 157 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked Over | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 143 | 57.3%82 W · 61 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 45c | 60.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Over | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Under | 49c | 59.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 405 | 46.9%190 W · 215 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 45c | 52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 210 | 46.2%97 W · 113 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…672ebacked Over | 52c | 51.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 137 | 59.9%82 W · 55 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 498 | 52.6%262 W · 236 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 68c | 42.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Over | 59c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 931 | 48.4%451 W · 480 L | +34.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Over | 68c | 36.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 163 | 69.9%114 W · 49 L | +18.6wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 46c | 35.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 131 | 61.8%81 W · 50 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb9…7cd9backed Over | 60c | 32.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Under | 33c | 30.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed Over | 54c | 30.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 852 | 48.9%417 W · 435 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Under | 33c | 30.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +8.2wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Over | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 130 | 36.2%47 W · 83 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 39c | 27.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe56a…2ba5backed Under | 49c | 22.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 65c | 17.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 103.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Lakers won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Lakers won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. LakersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 210.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 211.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.