TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Lakers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Lakers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,446,541
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,724,176

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,446,541 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,829 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5375…aeeabacked Lakers24c533,413$127,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127,734.5685742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Thunder77c314,121$240,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73,580.1666248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Lakers24c208,333$50,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,00036549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Thunder77c157,845$120,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,075.824,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Thunder74c156,842$116,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,171.2969848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Thunder76c120,000$91,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,799.981,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Lakers23c108,250$24,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,613.5864948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x47a8…52f9backed Lakers24c101,075$23,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,847.33036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Lakers17c98,573$17,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,203.941,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b4a…8060backed Lakers23c89,999$20,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,699.723839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Thunder77c75,000$57,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,25034456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Thunder76c75,000$57,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,999.958763.2%55 W · 32 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Thunder77c70,980$55,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,979.6771654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Thunder77c69,832$53,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,061.3631644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Lakers7c66,514$4,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,805.1336023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Lakers24c65,328$15,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,713.556459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0325…01bcbacked Thunder77c64,564$49,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,849.792661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+22.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed Thunder76c60,000$45,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,399.9620454.9%112 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Lakers13c55,752$7,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,309.71,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b0…6815backed Thunder77c51,606$39,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,869.351770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Lakers13c51,477$6,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,774.551,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Lakers25c50,000$12,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,5004825%12 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x20e2…667fbacked Lakers23c46,000$10,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,579.934032.5%13 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Lakers25c40,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0001428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-46.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Lakers21c36,959$7,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,703.1942645.5%194 W · 232 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Thunder75c30,000$22,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,349.961,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Thunder80c29,598$23,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,034.351,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Thunder76c29,344$22,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,095.334,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ebb…cb1abacked Lakers24c29,167$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0002748.1%13 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c28…9e49backed Lakers7c27,915$1,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,961.051942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Lakers28c27,600$7,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,865.231533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Thunder76c27,500$20,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,599.9861851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Lakers0c25,453$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.85213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Lakers24c24,343$5,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,856.138143%164 W · 217 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Lakers22c23,467$5,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,162.7859653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Lakers23c23,361$5,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,328.6713534.1%46 W · 89 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b52…568ebacked Thunder70c21,566$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,565.874963.3%31 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Thunder76c21,000$15,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,04017553.7%94 W · 81 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x418d…88a3backed Lakers23c20,774$4,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,785.6910248%49 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Lakers1c20,612$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.9238434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8821…b75ebacked Lakers24c20,228$4,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,854.79633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-43.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52f5…5e8abacked Thunder76c20,000$15,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,799.993770.3%26 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4d3…c2f0backed Thunder76c19,514$14,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,617.955160.8%31 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Lakers15c18,454$2,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,781.472,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed Thunder77c14,830$11,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,344.0218651.1%95 W · 91 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Thunder75c14,559$10,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,614.981,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed Lakers24c14,128$3,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,390.7827241.9%114 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Thunder74c13,496$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,495.6142348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e39…2b41backed Lakers1c12,643$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.922711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf59c…a682backed Lakers24c12,632$3,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,013.881931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0159…db47backed Lakers1c11,775$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.64614.9%3 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4517…f700backed Lakers24c11,521$2,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,76517147.4%81 W · 90 L+13.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Thunder76c11,398$8,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,725.3855251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e21…eeb6backed Lakers24c11,236$2,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,696.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb7…a0f1backed Lakers24c11,025$2,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6462536%9 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x338c…bef7backed Lakers14c10,884$1,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53214626.7%39 W · 107 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaa8…7ea2backed Thunder74c10,879$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,878.6734554.8%189 W · 156 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8966…3476backed Lakers0c10,818$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.89728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.26per pick2cpaid+1,525.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6550…8451backed Lakers16c10,694$1,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,711.436437.5%24 W · 40 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ce9…9c2dbacked Lakers0c10,204$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407623.7%18 W · 58 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+51.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff6a…9deabacked Lakers0c10,086$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.991735.3%6 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick21cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Thunder76c10,055$7,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,413.2844337.9%168 W · 275 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1fa…78b8backed Lakers20c10,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick38cpaid-46.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Lakers1c10,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11037627.9%105 W · 271 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x907d…7d45backed Thunder76c10,000$7,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,400728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-51.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d9b…a5ebbacked Thunder67c10,000$6,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,30013544.4%60 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8180…f4dabacked Thunder76c10,000$7,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.9743352.2%226 W · 207 L+19.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d64…bfb8backed Lakers23c9,999$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.73837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Lakers13c9,700$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,252.4719937.2%74 W · 125 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Thunder76c9,069$6,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,176.5637355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Lakers23c9,000$2,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,07056945.3%258 W · 311 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Thunder78c9,000$7,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,98071044.6%317 W · 393 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Lakers30c9,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,699.941,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thunder76c8,968$6,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,152.242,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc741…a270backed Lakers24c8,840$2,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,121.643834.2%13 W · 25 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+36.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x24d5…9e7cbacked Lakers20c8,641$1,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,734.963834.2%13 W · 25 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64d9…46e6backed Lakers16c8,500$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8516…93a0backed Lakers24c8,333$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0008035%28 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Lakers17c8,242$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,42561638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…57e7backed Lakers24c7,617$1,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,828.131758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde7c…c933backed Lakers5c7,600$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3803221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid+2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Lakers0c7,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.15502.5%14 W · 536 L+2.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Lakers2c7,013$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1464517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Thunder76c7,000$5,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,68057950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Lakers24c6,999$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,679.8535650%178 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe311…2492backed Lakers28c6,975$1,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,953.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Lakers23c6,823$1,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,569.45550.9%28 W · 27 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+25.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2efa…8a01backed Thunder73c6,685$4,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,816.766352.4%33 W · 30 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84b8…1193backed Thunder71c6,500$4,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,86134942.7%149 W · 200 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccef…2de3backed Lakers19c6,466$1,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258.981926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder76c6,292$4,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,480.174,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfec8…50f7backed Lakers24c6,065$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,455.55567.3%37 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+24.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3d91…a5fdbacked Lakers23c6,064$1,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,394.711637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-35.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Thunder67c6,000$4,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,98032846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2ab…3d8bbacked Lakers27c6,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked Lakers25c5,700$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4255347.2%25 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe51b…661fbacked Lakers22c5,650$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.831050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Lakers23c5,500$1,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,264.9623742.6%101 W · 136 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Thunder74c5,443$4,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,401.8631453.5%168 W · 146 L+0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63df…63d1backed Lakers7c5,414$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006734.3%23 W · 44 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.