NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c9642374e94716d949f58640a18e6fc043dfc46b4b8e04112a85ffb9a4d504c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Thunder, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Thunder | 54c | 11,555$6,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,184.14 | 145 | 38.6%56 W · 89 L | -12.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Lakers | 47c | 5,636$2,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,986.96 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…abcebacked Lakers | 46c | 3,002$1,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,621.17 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…5122backed Lakers | 46c | 2,174$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.91 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -5.6wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Lakers | 46c | 1,374$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.65 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066e…6ba5backed Thunder | 54c | 1,260$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…0c42backed Lakers | 46c | 862.83$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.93 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Lakers | 48c | 416.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.88 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Thunder | 53c | 414.73$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 362 | 48.1%174 W · 188 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1b…b9c4backed Thunder | 57c | 404.56$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Lakers | 43c | 357.08$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.3 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…5040backed Thunder | 72c | 341.84$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.6 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Lakers | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 170 | 47.6%81 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Lakers | 16c | 215.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.27 | 249 | 36.9%92 W · 157 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Thunder | 52c | 211.91$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.75 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Lakers | 30c | 199.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.2 | 218 | 48.2%105 W · 113 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Lakers | 17c | 195$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.89 | 130 | 36.2%47 W · 83 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Lakers | 53c | 188.09$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.02 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Lakers | 13c | 166$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.42 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1690…8c4dbacked Thunder | 75c | 164.27$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.05 | 70 | 64.3%45 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1988…a534backed Lakers | 35c | 122.6$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.74 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Thunder | 52c | 104.69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a6…b9debacked Thunder | 61c | 101.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x493d…26cbbacked Lakers | 51c | 98.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Lakers | 25c | 93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Thunder | 55c | 91.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…844fbacked Thunder | 55c | 91.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Lakers | 49c | 86.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…1da8backed Lakers | 51c | 59.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Thunder | 49c | 58.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…6daebacked Lakers | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 224 | 42.9%96 W · 128 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Thunder | 54c | 58.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e89…2fc6backed Lakers | 49c | 41.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Lakers | 46c | 37.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Thunder | 54c | 35.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 186 | 53.2%99 W · 87 L | +9.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Lakers | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b62…1253backed Thunder | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 207 | 56%116 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9785…2c5abacked Lakers | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…9384backed Lakers | 51c | 29.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Thunder | 57c | 29.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 163 | 69.9%114 W · 49 L | +18.6wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Thunder | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc9…185bbacked Thunder | 57c | 26.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 292 | 47.9%140 W · 152 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Lakers won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. LakersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 103.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 210.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 211.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.