NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d85428288ddf6a999926452f2d1ec452219f504e6a79e33992b49c2962b144b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Thunder, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $162,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked Thunder | 1c | 150,000$1,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,435 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x678b…24a4backed Thunder | 69c | 2,838$1,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,955.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Thunder | 69c | 1,434$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.44 | 626 | 52.2%327 W · 299 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee0b…e6d4backed Lakers | 31c | 1,115$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.64 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +5.5wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Lakers | 31c | 1,099$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.05 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae7…1eebbacked Lakers | 36c | 790.69$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Thunder | 71c | 475.79$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 236 | 52.5%124 W · 112 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Lakers | 31c | 440$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.6 | 620 | 51.1%317 W · 303 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce9…61e5backed Lakers | 37c | 405.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf48a…f397backed Lakers | 36c | 307.28$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c4…d5a1backed Lakers | 29c | 300.4$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.05 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Thunder | 11c | 222.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 130 | 36.2%47 W · 83 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Thunder | 9c | 209.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Thunder | 9c | 188$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Thunder | 9c | 183$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Lakers | 64c | 173.5$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed Lakers | 33c | 171.27$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.75 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Thunder | 9c | 167$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 249 | 36.9%92 W · 157 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…1fe2backed Lakers | 78c | 128.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Lakers | 42c | 115.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.12 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Thunder | 67c | 93.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Thunder | 79c | 85.68$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 473 | 59.2%280 W · 193 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Thunder | 64c | 74.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1495…d3f9backed Thunder | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Thunder | 69c | 70.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…3b83backed Lakers | 36c | 69.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbd…a3a4backed Lakers | 34c | 64.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Thunder | 65c | 56.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 498 | 52.6%262 W · 236 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e89…2fc6backed Lakers | 38c | 52.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Lakers | 31c | 50.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 218 | 48.2%105 W · 113 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2481…878dbacked Thunder | 62c | 47.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Thunder | 37c | 45.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba83…4f66backed Lakers | 42c | 41.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Thunder | 69c | 38.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Thunder | 67c | 29.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Thunder | 53c | 25.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Thunder | 64c | 16.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Lakers won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Lakers won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. LakersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 103.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 210.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 211.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.