NBA · resolved market
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd7a5d2c56198c39d84b73a7135b577cd22a6750a54f9affa79c6102a66dec75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa804…bdc1backed Yes | 45c | 1,274$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.06 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed No | 55c | 1,273$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.22 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 55c | 1,082$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.71 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 44c | 390.94$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.01 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91dd…2730backed Yes | 45c | 350$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.8 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6d…71b4backed Yes | 45c | 308.27$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Yes | 45c | 222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 249 | 49%122 W · 127 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…b989backed No | 55c | 204.65$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.09 | 492 | 44.3%218 W · 274 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes | 40c | 199.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…672ebacked No | 60c | 194.63$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.22 | 137 | 59.9%82 W · 55 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…7db3backed No | 55c | 181.57$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.51 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 43c | 161.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.78 | 538 | 42%226 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Yes | 44c | 159.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd469…8b63backed No | 65c | 153.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked No | 66c | 152.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Yes | 45c | 126.63$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.29 | 205 | 58.5%120 W · 85 L | +19.6wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd755…61a1backed Yes | 30c | 123.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…ef54backed No | 58c | 119.92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 56c | 112.22$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 45c | 104.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1815…e217backed No | 57c | 89.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae1…bbedbacked No | 59c | 85.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 55c | 82.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff4…8720backed No | 56c | 79.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…0073backed Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Yes | 44c | 59.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Yes | 31c | 59.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 130 | 36.2%47 W · 83 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef6…38b5backed Yes | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…e968backed Yes | 44c | 44.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…40f7backed No | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 400 | 48.3%193 W · 207 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 57c | 27.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…9ce4backed No | 53c | 24.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 199 | 52.3%104 W · 95 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…1c01backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Lakers won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Lakers won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. LakersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 103.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 210.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 211.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.