NBA · resolved market
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 16.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x909ae90c7d3f16add5b90ee7d372510e7c4ca8b59ee4dbb23d40a178a0978d3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 47c | 1,919$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.5 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb5…91d7backed Yes | 55c | 903.3$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.97 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Yes | 52c | 665.57$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.58 | 722 | 41.4%299 W · 423 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x907a…d962backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Yes | 52c | 312.5$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.2 | 256 | 57%146 W · 110 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 46c | 299.97$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…7db3backed Yes | 55c | 182$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.05 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 348 | 49.7%173 W · 175 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed No | 45c | 159.3$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 405 | 46.9%190 W · 215 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 45c | 109.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked No | 55c | 91.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 177 | 58.2%103 W · 74 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Yes | 45c | 80.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 44c | 64.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Yes | 50c | 53.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1815…e217backed Yes | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 47c | 43.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…9ce4backed Yes | 53c | 40.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 199 | 52.3%104 W · 95 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 46c | 39.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 46c | 38.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9d…c744backed Yes | 55c | 36.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 49c | 35.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 269 | 57.2%154 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed No | 49c | 31.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 498 | 52.6%262 W · 236 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…0073backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aeb…42d4backed Yes | 51c | 29.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d0…bf9dbacked Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -6.6wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 49c | 26.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 49c | 20.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 267 | 55.1%147 W · 120 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x096d…38dfbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 16.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Lakers won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Lakers won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5No won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. LakersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 103.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 210.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 211.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.