NBA · resolved market
LeBron James: Points O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16e3c20d113ff4a5ab7a4404676984bdc5e1b49c71335717eabda79cb035da03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 45c | 3,847$1,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,132.02 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 42c | 2,442$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413.73 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Yes | 57c | 880.18$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 79 | 63.3%50 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…3a8abacked Yes | 58c | 843.83$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…1d29backed Yes | 56c | 604.41$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…672ebacked Yes | 58c | 479.15$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.6 | 137 | 59.9%82 W · 55 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a42…2fc2backed Yes | 55c | 404.07$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 43c | 389.98$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.29 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd469…8b63backed Yes | 56c | 367.82$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.12 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…67c2backed Yes | 57c | 358.3$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.28 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…6952backed Yes | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 337 | 49.3%166 W · 171 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…add4backed Yes | 58c | 346.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bb…a993backed Yes | 55c | 333.34$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.34 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc0…099dbacked Yes | 56c | 312.5$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf72…4510backed Yes | 55c | 202.62$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33b…2372backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7089…0432backed Yes | 54c | 185.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…7db3backed Yes | 55c | 182$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a4…c6a9backed Yes | 55c | 179.09$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 48c | 142.22$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.9 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…79a9backed Yes | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 47c | 124.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.29 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…77abbacked No | 39c | 111.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 48c | 106.15$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaac…ff10backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b9…66aabacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0554…79b9backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Yes | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 427 | 40.3%172 W · 255 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 43c | 97.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked No | 48c | 89.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 249 | 49%122 W · 127 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa1…ce68backed Yes | 52c | 87.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3893…8afbbacked No | 48c | 67.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +9.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 42c | 59.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1815…e217backed Yes | 55c | 58.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e89…2fc6backed Yes | 53c | 56.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 47c | 44.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 269 | 57.2%154 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c5…378abacked Yes | 55c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 157 | 44.6%70 W · 87 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a9…44d3backed Yes | 55c | 41.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 284 | 55.3%157 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 161 | 50.9%82 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 55c | 39.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…270ebacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 48%85 W · 92 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff4…8720backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x565c…f3c0backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7272backed Yes | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 45c | 35.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 267 | 55.1%147 W · 120 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 43c | 32.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc01d…c854backed Yes | 54c | 30.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed No | 42c | 30.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1988…a534backed Yes | 65c | 30.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x941e…c622backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +9.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked No | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 400 | 48.3%193 W · 207 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfb…550cbacked Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…e7f5backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…40f7backed No | 45c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 49c | 26.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…a673backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed Yes | 54c | 24.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a8…d497backed Yes | 57c | 22.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aeb…42d4backed Yes | 54c | 22.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4480…8c0ebacked Yes | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9785…2c5abacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1646…2f81backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 109 | 54.1%59 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…d381backed Yes | 55c | 19.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1732…1c15backed Yes | 56c | 18.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LeBron James: Points O/U 21.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Lakers won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Lakers won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. LakersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 103.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 210.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 211.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.