TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-9.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Lakers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$901,578
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$939,943

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $901,578 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 330 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Thunder49c261,749$128,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133,492.0187451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Thunder48c119,716$57,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,870.924,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Lakers51c116,489$59,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,394.7666248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Lakers51c98,039$50,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,00036549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked Thunder49c59,273$29,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,229.2725248.4%122 W · 130 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Lakers51c53,493$27,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,281.5310530.5%32 W · 73 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Lakers51c40,027$20,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,413.839842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47a8…52f9backed Lakers51c40,000$20,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,4003036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Lakers52c30,000$15,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,60017251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Lakers51c22,675$11,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,656.167758.4%45 W · 32 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x462d…ce9bbacked Thunder51c18,399$9,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,937.227353.4%39 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed Thunder50c18,039$9,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,964.5418651.1%95 W · 91 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3009…19a9backed Lakers54c16,849$9,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,143.68837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-39.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Lakers52c16,249$8,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,500.0164948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…57e7backed Lakers52c15,440$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0001758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bec…07a8backed Lakers25c12,000$2,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,963.6120744%91 W · 116 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe169…4653backed Lakers51c11,173$5,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,698.4712450.8%63 W · 61 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Thunder48c10,245$4,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,351.9369848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Thunder50c10,226$5,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,152.1663746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Lakers51c9,328$4,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,775.894,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Lakers50c8,513$4,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,259.931,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Lakers52c8,200$4,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,26412056.7%68 W · 52 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Lakers40c7,783$3,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,086.682,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Lakers25c5,811$1,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,467.081,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Thunder47c5,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,649.9944252.3%231 W · 211 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Lakers64c4,794$3,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,079.775050%25 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Lakers51c4,723$2,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,431.954,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Thunder42c4,300$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,499.9916633.7%56 W · 110 L-11.6wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1543…baafbacked Thunder49c4,066$1,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,083.0212741.7%53 W · 74 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4879…86c0backed Lakers50c4,001$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0009246.7%43 W · 49 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+34.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Lakers52c3,846$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00014556.6%82 W · 63 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Lakers51c3,248$1,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,656.4848352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62d5…8f10backed Lakers70c3,145$2,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,197.372552%13 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed Thunder68c2,960$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.768752.9%46 W · 41 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Lakers52c2,726$1,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,405.1865045.1%293 W · 357 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Thunder50c2,550$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.111,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Lakers51c2,500$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,27556843.8%249 W · 319 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Thunder49c2,301$1,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.4530448.4%147 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Thunder42c2,253$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,297.2361638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Thunder51c2,080$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.871,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Thunder50c2,006$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.191,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed Lakers51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02016050%80 W · 80 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Lakers50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00022055%121 W · 99 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed Lakers49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98023047%108 W · 122 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb7b…3051backed Lakers53c1,887$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Lakers52c1,694$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.9384443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9438…3d6abacked Lakers51c1,671$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.1538947.6%185 W · 204 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52f9…ad24backed Lakers51c1,647$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8404452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers50c1,620$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8106,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Lakers53c1,585$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.052,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Thunder49c1,566$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.7862051.1%317 W · 303 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd1b…b9c4backed Thunder53c1,343$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.533735.1%13 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Thunder49c1,333$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.7421653.7%116 W · 100 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23f9…3c2dbacked Thunder48c1,250$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65018643.5%81 W · 105 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83d4…ad01backed Lakers51c1,156$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.569558.9%56 W · 39 L+13.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+27.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7c1b…f0f9backed Lakers41c1,121$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Lakers50c1,100$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55045146.1%208 W · 243 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Thunder54c1,036$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.3793148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Thunder77c1,025$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.751,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbf7…06acbacked Thunder49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.414640.4%59 W · 87 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e39…77f3backed Thunder50c1,020$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.85431.5%17 W · 37 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Lakers50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b0c…3a96backed Lakers32c1,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3203129%9 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Lakers52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5207143.7%31 W · 40 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-19.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Lakers52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52035049.4%173 W · 177 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed Thunder49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51021139.8%84 W · 127 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed45…3de8backed Lakers51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5107454.1%40 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63ed…b0f4backed Lakers55c999.98$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.992339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Lakers31c990.5$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.4142842.5%182 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Thunder51c980.39$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.3941753.2%222 W · 195 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Lakers49c976.64$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.1255251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Thunder49c975.4$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.4515952.2%83 W · 76 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Thunder45c928.98$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.941,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Thunder53c891.77$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.1368838.5%265 W · 423 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a52…baafbacked Thunder79c882.23$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.71533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-48.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Lakers15c864.03$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.1721848.2%105 W · 113 L+11.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x418d…88a3backed Lakers50c794.57$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.2910248%49 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf879…820ebacked Lakers49c708.29$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34511833.9%40 W · 78 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-25.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Thunder37c699.99$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4391,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Thunder75c655.11$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.6530551.5%157 W · 148 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Lakers52c645$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.44850%24 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Thunder57c643.77$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.541,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Lakers48c643.33$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.4252861.9%327 W · 201 L+32.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0bf8…03b2backed Lakers52c634.62$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33027549.5%136 W · 139 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61a8…519dbacked Lakers40c632.26$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2534161%25 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Lakers23c615$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.452,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Thunder48c600$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31270246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Thunder50c594$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29729040.3%117 W · 173 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Thunder50c592.34$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.1732450.3%163 W · 161 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Thunder53c507.02$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.5789444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked Thunder49c506.12$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.124768.1%32 W · 15 L+8.3wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+39.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5a64…3c0abacked Thunder40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3004961.2%30 W · 19 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+23.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed Thunder49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25512851.6%66 W · 62 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0ff…9953backed Thunder56c499.99$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22011864.4%76 W · 42 L+15.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+25.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb845…ca23backed Lakers33c492.83$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.092634.6%9 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d2c…f694backed Lakers26c492.81$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1261723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Lakers52c480.77$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25047651.7%246 W · 230 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Thunder63c479.09$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.0952461.6%323 W · 201 L-0.3wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Thunder50c473.96$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.7389850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Lakers21c464.1$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6527245.6%124 W · 148 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.