TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Lakersof Thunder, Lakers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,411
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,683

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,411 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Thunder49c9,730$4,763 inLost-$4,762.6914538.6%56 W · 89 L-12.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Lakers52c5,209$2,707 inWon+$2,501.5812056.7%68 W · 52 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Lakers50c4,410$2,205 inWon+$2,20556646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Lakers51c300$152 inWon+$147.81,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb221…a639backed Lakers54c224.07$121 inWon+$103.074637%17 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Thunder46c211.08$97 inLost-$97.12,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Thunder45c198.07$89 inLost-$89.132,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Thunder45c127.84$58 inLost-$58.1123741.4%98 W · 139 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Thunder48c102.88$50 inLost-$49.6862047.3%293 W · 327 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x675c…4341backed Thunder49c91.84$45 inLost-$454348.8%21 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Lakers54c91.82$50 inWon+$42.241,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf37c…3c74backed Lakers55c90.91$50 inWon+$40.916126.2%16 W · 45 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5bcf…ef2fbacked Lakers55c59.51$33 inWon+$26.781040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Lakers48c42.07$20 inWon+$21.681,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a37…4daebacked Lakers51c39.22$20 inWon+$19.223548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae5…8386backed Lakers53c38.04$20 inWon+$18.042161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+33.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Thunder47c36.86$17 inLost-$17.3349852.6%262 W · 236 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b0b…12ffbacked Lakers55c33.69$19 inWon+$15.168852.3%46 W · 42 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Lakers52c30$16 inWon+$14.461253.1%325 W · 287 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Lakers54c29.63$16 inWon+$13.6345445.4%206 W · 248 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Lakers54c29.61$16 inWon+$13.6260250.5%304 W · 298 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d1f…48a4backed Lakers54c27.13$15 inWon+$12.4810948.6%53 W · 56 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x970f…f167backed Lakers54c24.22$13 inWon+$11.225556.4%31 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93dc…3728backed Thunder51c21.57$11 inLost-$117444.6%33 W · 41 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.