TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,170
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,199

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,170 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6157…9fb4backed Yes56c889.35$500 inLost-$5007963.3%50 W · 29 L+7.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No44c344.44$150 inWon+$194.111,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No42c301.35$127 inWon+$174.7879650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No47c299.97$141 inWon+$158.9856050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd469…8b63backed Yes57c264$150 inLost-$1501947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x87ed…b497backed No44c211.71$94 inWon+$117.649947.5%47 W · 52 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13a9…e573backed No46c200$92 inWon+$10812347.2%58 W · 65 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a42…2fc2backed Yes53c197.62$105 inLost-$104.741020%2 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-62.4%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xd6d9…04eebacked Yes54c185.45$100 inLost-$1002245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No45c140$63 inWon+$76.743752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Yes53c108.25$57 inLost-$57.3749244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed No43c79.44$34 inWon+$45.2819352.8%102 W · 91 L+11.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x88a2…68a0backed Yes55c59.99$33 inLost-$32.9915351%78 W · 75 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No45c54.63$25 inWon+$30.0585449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed No45c53.99$24 inWon+$29.6940546.9%190 W · 215 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b90…672ebacked No49c50.51$25 inWon+$25.6413759.9%82 W · 55 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde74…77abbacked No43c50$22 inWon+$28.512642.9%54 W · 72 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee8…30abbacked No47c43.6$20 inWon+$23.2683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick49cpaid+73.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf89…0fb1backed Yes55c36.16$20 inLost-$203554.3%19 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a6e…9bc5backed Yes56c35.71$20 inLost-$208354.2%45 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No44c31.16$14 inWon+$17.452,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Yes51c30$15 inLost-$15.3837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-16.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No48c28.57$14 inWon+$14.8633356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a7…40f7backed No46c27.52$13 inWon+$14.953770.3%26 W · 11 L+7.0wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+40.8%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xe363…0be2backed No50c20.2$10 inWon+$10.21540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ac…80c0backed No78c13.6$11 inWon+$2.999100%9 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.