MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a4fb9cb794cfca21c0d3760bc01d7bbc1c75ec26a804f3ab6529fe9652e6d95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Under | 60c | 10,000$5,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,009.81 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 40c | 6,104$2,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,444.42 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 37c | 4,154$1,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.21 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 1,273$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.3 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 72c | 894.68$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.47 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 56c | 694.1$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.59 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 599.44$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.7 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…43d0backed Over | 54c | 551.09$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 53c | 268.54$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.33 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 54c | 194.44$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 36c | 192.24$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.21 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf879…820ebacked Over | 11c | 184$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 54c | 177.02$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under | 47c | 156$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.68 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 53c | 135.75$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.89 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 54c | 126.32$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.21 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 65c | 111.7$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…46e5backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 46c | 82.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 56c | 70.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 36c | 65.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b98…4be3backed Under | 62c | 48.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…bdc1backed Over | 54c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 47c | 30.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4e…a24abacked Under | 54c | 19.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle MarinersKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.