Asian League · resolved market
Will Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa20240f69b9fd2249f05ab349fbe70b44663607e303429b1f8a2ffdfa9c8ab6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 59c | 1,920$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.22 | 2,499 | 42.3%1,057 W · 1,442 L | +52.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 49c | 1,560$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.04 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 9c | 1,178$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.17 | 922 | 35.1%324 W · 598 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 47c | 807.78$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.1 | 1,022 | 41.5%424 W · 598 L | -33.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 20c | 619.75$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.89 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 468.13$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.41 | 1,760 | 50.3%885 W · 875 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 44c | 402.6$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.88 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.62 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -9.6wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 39c | 350.09$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.15 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 13c | 347.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 13c | 338$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 48c | 321.44$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.69 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 66c | 294.96$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.26 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 55c | 238.76$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.23 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2d…5116backed Yes | 47c | 235.62$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 46c | 218.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.48 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +42%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Yes | 48c | 208.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.44 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 62c | 197.4$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.12 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf879…820ebacked Yes | 29c | 191.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +74%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Yes | 51c | 172.72$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.63 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 10c | 158.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 49c | 139.59$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 217 | 54.4%118 W · 99 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65a0…2a86backed No | 72c | 137.88$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 25c | 129.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.63 | 1,707 | 50.6%863 W · 844 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 121.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.35 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked No | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…fc49backed No | 67c | 111.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 105.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.93 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 66c | 104.43$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 26c | 99.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f47…ae5dbacked Yes | 28c | 92.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.74 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed No | 15c | 92.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5d…67b4backed Yes | 69c | 71.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 54c | 70.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7a…9ca2backed No | 44c | 68.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc41…ac6dbacked Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 33c | 52.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Yes | 49c | 51.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked No | 71c | 49.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 182 | 56%102 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Yes | 42c | 46.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed No | 58c | 43.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229a…2a75backed Yes | 75c | 42.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 38c | 42.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 244 | 48.4%118 W · 126 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 75c | 41.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 75c | 41.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 49c | 36.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 762 | 55.9%426 W · 336 L | +38.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Yes | 69c | 35.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Yes | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff7…b686backed No | 70c | 27.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…3e9fbacked No | 74c | 27.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka end in a draw?this page
- Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-05-03?No won
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.