Asian League · resolved market
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e11e9ce8af47cc3b73f05bdaacd7af95cfad25ee5e14967c0bd027c994c3f93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 76c | 3,610$2,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.47 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 24c | 2,716$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 56c | 863.38$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.89 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 37c | 589.6$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.65 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 63c | 566.63$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.73 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde1d…c645backed Yes | 26c | 450.38$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 49c | 432.99$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.91 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes | 44c | 428$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.32 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed No | 48c | 420.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.63 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 44c | 372.73$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 285 | 32.3%92 W · 193 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 48c | 304.77$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.97 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 48c | 276.35$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.2 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ec…0923backed No | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…0ac5backed Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2062…6be2backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 204 | 20.1%41 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.95 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc21…ea09backed Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a47…cfbbbacked Yes | 55c | 183.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Yes | 27c | 180.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 64c | 173.99$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.06 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 58c | 173.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.83 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 49c | 163.67$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.27 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 70c | 157.25$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1317backed Yes | 45c | 154.01$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…70c5backed No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…0114backed Yes | 28c | 122.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 22c | 114$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 271 | 48%130 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed No | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 34c | 87.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 74c | 79.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 15c | 77.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…e4abbacked Yes | 55c | 76.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 60c | 73.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2471…1cd6backed Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…2517backed Yes | 44c | 66.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked No | 49c | 61.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…73e0backed Yes | 31c | 58.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 53c | 56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 60c | 54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 279 | 64.9%181 W · 98 L | +28.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 48c | 50.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162b…2b8cbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa597…cfa9backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 49c | 45.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…f59abacked No | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 51c | 43.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 47c | 42.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 70c | 40.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 282 | 51.4%145 W · 137 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 423 | 51.3%217 W · 206 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…bf25backed Yes | 47c | 39.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 67c | 39.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…bfe7backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…363dbacked Yes | 45c | 35.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Yes | 32c | 34.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 73c | 34.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…6fbabacked No | 47c | 32.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 56c | 30.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed Yes | 55c | 27.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 38c | 26.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 585 | 42.7%250 W · 335 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed No | 62c | 21.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-03?this page
- Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-05-03?No won
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.