TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x162b…2b8c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
34
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NBA, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 54 out of 100; worst MLB at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT1764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$13.2
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$42.84
Spread: 76ers (-2.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Timberwolves vs. 76ers: O/U 233.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Spread: Hornets (-15.5)backed Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$9.79
Pacers vs. Hornets: O/U 236.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$9.8
Spread: Rockets (-13.5)backed Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$10.4
Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+92.3%+$9.6
Spread: Lakers (-8.5)backed Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+100%+$10
Rockets vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$11.4
Cavaliers vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+49.3%+$16.5
Spread: Hornets (-3.5)backed Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+100%+$10
Grizzlies vs. Sunsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$15.71
Lakers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.4
Pacers vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$5.6
Timberwolves vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$1,278.69
All 17 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$220
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: Closed Qualifier Playoffsbacked Gentle Mates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.45
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paulbacked Tommy Paul · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$410Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$590
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$9.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+79.5%+$159.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Odyssey Therapeutics' market cap be between $1.1B and $1.4B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$7.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 100m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: FC Lorient (-1.5)backed FC Lorient · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Mallorca (-0.5)backed Mallorca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$3,080Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,080
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,830Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$1,829.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$590Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$590
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.