NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hornets (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dca85f5a5860315f456d593ba1b860c91f2a37a9fbb31bc20814aed60fa7bdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Hornets, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jazz | 51c | 673.71$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.16 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Hornets | 49c | 596.92$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.8 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jazz | 58c | 476.02$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.09 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Hornets | 42c | 381$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.28 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Jazz | 49c | 372.42$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.96 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Hornets | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Jazz | 51c | 220$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Hornets | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Hornets | 51c | 115.92$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd44…b2e2backed Hornets | 41c | 100.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Jazz | 54c | 91.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Hornets | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0647…da66backed Hornets | 49c | 77.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25b6…4fcfbacked Jazz | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c132backed Hornets | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Jazz | 49c | 37.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Hornets | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162b…2b8cbacked Hornets | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hornets (-3.5)this page
- Jazz vs. HornetsHornets won
- Jazz vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Jazz vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Hornets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Hornets: O/U 237.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Hornets: O/U 238.5Under won
- Spread: Hornets (-1.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-2.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.