NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Hornets: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2d484935ffde6b20f84c162d366b846f7b577462107dd2902a3961fac9063e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 45c | 2,927$1,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,317.15 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Under | 55c | 2,450$1,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.5 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…de87backed Over | 48c | 2,313$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…80aebacked Over | 44c | 1,892$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.36 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc46…8a54backed Under | 52c | 1,388$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 50cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 56c | 1,369$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.19 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 56c | 1,260$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.1 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf134…7b46backed Over | 48c | 1,114$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe05…ed77backed Under | 52c | 836$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.28 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 653.29$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.34 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 39c | 605.49$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.13 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Over | 46c | 545.65$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc65e…7fffbacked Under | 52c | 498$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa419…a29bbacked Over | 48c | 437$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Under | 61c | 408.79$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.43 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf695…930abacked Under | 52c | 375$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63d5…c40ebacked Over | 48c | 325$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb19…cc1fbacked Under | 52c | 241$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.68 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 55c | 236.19$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.94 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Under | 50c | 210$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 45c | 209.51$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.28 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…c081backed Under | 52c | 180$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fa…3919backed Under | 52c | 160$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa868…ee41backed Under | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Over | 47c | 149.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 248 | 35.1%87 W · 161 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcdf…2934backed Under | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x669f…a2e9backed Under | 52c | 97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ff…b69cbacked Under | 52c | 89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x757c…ab06backed Under | 52c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 48c | 51.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 246 | 45.9%113 W · 133 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…0b03backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 41c | 33.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6da…7e3ebacked Under | 63c | 33.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -11.2wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Hornets: O/U 238.5this page
- Jazz vs. HornetsHornets won
- Jazz vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Jazz vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Hornets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Hornets: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Hornets (-1.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-2.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-3.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.