TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Timberwolves vs. Lakers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lakersof Timberwolves, Lakers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,905,553
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,943,123

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,905,553 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 501 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Lakers46c956,552$436,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520,223.3915443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5afb…4511backed Timberwolves54c913,030$495,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495,666.525540%22 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Timberwolves55c161,116$88,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88,526.6551350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc63…ded0backed Timberwolves54c80,681$43,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,503.5740%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Lakers58c72,509$42,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,222.4185742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Lakers46c62,065$28,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,736.9471052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Lakers43c53,774$23,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,472.992,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ed7…e617backed Timberwolves54c52,065$28,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,114.777255.6%40 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ff6…a199backed Timberwolves57c50,000$28,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,5001353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+32.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Lakers45c48,300$21,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,568.8441848.3%202 W · 216 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Lakers52c33,021$17,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,849.9814856.1%83 W · 65 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93fc…34b6backed Timberwolves55c28,163$15,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,567.024025%10 W · 30 L-5.2wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-47.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Timberwolves48c25,000$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,00034645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Lakers46c23,846$10,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,920.7569852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Lakers40c23,360$9,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,084.1447144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Lakers43c20,758$8,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,781.174748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba36…7ccbbacked Timberwolves57c20,731$11,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,779.381040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Lakers46c20,000$9,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,80047848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Lakers47c17,365$8,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,203.6592753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Lakers46c15,614$7,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,488.891,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x05a1…6e34backed Timberwolves50c15,542$7,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,77110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecbe…0aefbacked Lakers50c15,542$7,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,7711100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Timberwolves35c15,233$5,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,323.321,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Lakers47c13,174$6,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,982.2247751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Lakers46c12,500$5,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,75017658%102 W · 74 L+13.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Lakers41c12,239$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,238.8717441.4%72 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Timberwolves55c11,322$6,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,200.9235235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Lakers39c10,165$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,164.6516251.9%84 W · 78 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Lakers44c10,000$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,6001,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Lakers46c10,000$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,399.976152.5%32 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d94…3617backed Lakers75c9,722$7,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,433.55757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Lakers47c8,511$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,510.649838.8%38 W · 60 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Lakers70c7,559$5,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,274.3419249.5%95 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xade8…b0bdbacked Lakers46c7,299$3,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,910.245246.2%24 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ce3…3bc3backed Timberwolves65c6,820$4,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,463.342755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Timberwolves58c6,817$3,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,919.7427917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Lakers49c6,779$3,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,434.41,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Lakers49c6,324$3,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,245.2344459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d85…228ebacked Lakers47c6,257$2,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,299.617142.3%30 W · 41 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Lakers80c6,250$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,25034062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc210…f0cabacked Timberwolves56c6,250$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5006155.7%34 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Timberwolves53c5,369$2,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,845.686253.2%33 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Timberwolves2c5,209$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.378783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ae3…bc70backed Timberwolves22c5,003$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,09011149.5%55 W · 56 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Lakers52c4,700$2,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,256.2485347.9%409 W · 444 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Lakers44c4,680$2,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,620.5319351.3%99 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Timberwolves64c4,579$2,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,920.821,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Timberwolves1c4,565$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.367211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Timberwolves1c4,429$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.291,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Timberwolves32c4,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26044337.9%168 W · 275 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Timberwolves53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1201,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Timberwolves43c3,871$1,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,651.173,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Timberwolves50c3,841$1,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,927.4116446.3%76 W · 88 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Timberwolves42c3,678$1,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,540.632744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Lakers45c3,598$1,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,979.0215952.2%83 W · 76 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Timberwolves20c3,345$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.381529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Lakers47c3,300$1,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,75722845.2%103 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2ae…82aabacked Timberwolves39c3,300$1,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2871050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x162b…2b8cbacked Lakers61c3,279$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.691764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Timberwolves56c3,000$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,68031347%147 W · 166 L-14.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Timberwolves55c2,844$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,567.5780146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf930…e346backed Lakers55c2,744$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,243.8612451.6%64 W · 60 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fdd…5feabacked Timberwolves57c2,642$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5003243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ef…5232backed Timberwolves54c2,639$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,42510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Timberwolves29c2,580$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.7527041.5%112 W · 158 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x25a1…67b0backed Timberwolves54c2,500$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3503756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+90.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9621…b76cbacked Timberwolves50c2,500$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2552520%5 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-39.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Timberwolves55c2,477$1,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.0936148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves28c2,383$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.328,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Timberwolves52c2,217$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,152.664766%31 W · 16 L+7.2wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+31.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Timberwolves43c2,181$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.2347448.7%231 W · 243 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed Lakers44c2,145$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,201.6347048.5%228 W · 242 L-18.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Lakers43c2,137$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,216.830053.3%160 W · 140 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers47c2,113$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.826,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Lakers47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,06017250%86 W · 86 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Lakers52c1,979$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.0154747.5%260 W · 287 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0774…99febacked Lakers45c1,977$895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,082.264542.2%19 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Lakers46c1,957$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.5217540.6%71 W · 104 L-0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d4…ad20backed Timberwolves54c1,667$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9006448.4%31 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb644…d6e1backed Timberwolves24c1,666$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.83324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Timberwolves27c1,622$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.931,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8643…dc82backed Timberwolves10c1,600$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1585827.6%16 W · 42 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+92.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lakers45c1,596$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.932,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc96c…0fb2backed Timberwolves55c1,545$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8501241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x019d…2b01backed Timberwolves23c1,522$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35029037.9%110 W · 180 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xad23…47c4backed Timberwolves56c1,500$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.993933.3%13 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Timberwolves50c1,498$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.018036.3%29 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-24.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbb00…42e9backed Lakers47c1,489$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.364454.5%24 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Lakers45c1,475$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.7484150.3%423 W · 418 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Lakers43c1,467$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.6912160.3%73 W · 48 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x474b…a13cbacked Timberwolves40c1,320$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.331233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Lakers46c1,300$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70219448.5%94 W · 100 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Timberwolves53c1,252$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.9716547.3%78 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+56.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc23b…24f9backed Timberwolves57c1,250$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.54951%25 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Lakers45c1,250$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.51,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6775…17efbacked Lakers42c1,245$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.322650%13 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Timberwolves57c1,223$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.8341742%175 W · 242 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Timberwolves2c1,104$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.132,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad28…770cbacked Lakers46c1,090$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.592828.6%8 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-32.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Lakers46c1,088$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.169855.1%54 W · 44 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.