TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x25a1…67b0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
124
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Boxing, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Boxing at 56 out of 100; worst AI at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST4647.8%22 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 46 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$544Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+47.1%+$256
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$50.8
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)backed 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$29.56
49ers vs. Seahawksbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$72
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$166
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$165
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$99.46
Cowboys vs. Commandersbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,821Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+30.4%+$857.39
Ravens vs. Bengalsbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,416Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+69.5%+$983.99
Will the Washington Commanders win the NFC East?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$233Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+42.9%+$100
Eagles vs. Packersbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$799.67
Steelers vs. Chargersbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$481Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST+61.3%+$294.5
Spread: Lions (-8.5)backed Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$104.08
Packers vs. Steelersbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,586Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$1,014
49ers vs. Texansbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,066Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$984
Texans vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,647Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$1,052.98
Falcons vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$912Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$808.39
Commanders vs. Cowboysbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$853Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$852.8
Rams vs. Jaguarsbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,133Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$787.2
Steelers vs. Bengalsbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$140
Bills vs. Falconsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,501Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,500.8
Lions vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$950Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$809.6
49ers vs. Buccaneersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$533Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$533.33
Seahawks vs. Jaguarsbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT+100%+$150
Cowboys vs. Panthersbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,269Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,268.8
Showing 25 of 46 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT3756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+90.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+3,125.8%+$484.5
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$343Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$343.2
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+216.5%+$205.2
Will Minnesota Timberwolves advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$222
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$43
Spread: Hawks (-16.5)backed Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$23.78
Raptors vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 112.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$12
Spread: Hawks (-3.5)backed Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5)backed Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: Clippers (-13.5)backed Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Spread: Pistons (-14.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$52.8
Spread: Hornets (-12.5)backed Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.2
Spread: Kings (-3.5)backed Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+96.7%+$172.02
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+81.2%+$92.62
Will the World team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$80
Nuggets vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$3,075Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$3,075
Lakers vs. Pelicansbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,041Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+47.1%+$960.32
Hawks vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$2,556Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$2,555.97
Celtics vs. Kingsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$3,393Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+28.2%+$957
Suns vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,070Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+44.9%+$930
Celtics vs. Jazzbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$2,556Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+38.9%+$994
Nuggets vs. Magicbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$309.88
Raptors vs. Wizardsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$2,814Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$2,814.17
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,020Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+96.1%+$980
Lakers vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,497Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+66.7%+$997.99
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Valorant — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+18.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Indiana (-8.5)backed Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$255Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+96.1%+$245
Troy vs. Jacksonville Statebacked Jacksonville State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,086Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+88.7%+$963.5
BYU vs. Iowa Statebacked Iowa State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$200.2
Toledo vs. Washington Statebacked Toledo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Georgia vs. Tennesseebacked Georgia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$80
Georgia Tech vs. Coloradobacked Georgia Tech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$433Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT+61.7%+$266.99
All 6 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-63.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$23
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)backed Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.15
San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Soxbacked San Diego Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.5
All 3 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+583%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+142.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $124m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$246Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT+142.1%+$349.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,118Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+43.1%+$481.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$503Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$502.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pump.fun >$10B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$169
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-6.5)backed Louisville Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.8
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.