MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94528fd5516779c2381cad2ad9fa36cbb84985b4388c23e1659848948a6d02ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5318…1118backed Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 2,303$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.85 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Chicago White Sox | 45c | 2,267$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.29 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 1,593$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.29 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed Chicago White Sox | 49c | 1,454$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago White Sox | 47c | 493.06$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.32 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Chicago White Sox | 47c | 409.36$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.38 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 399.36$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.85 | 666 | 48.2%321 W · 345 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 316.82$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.41 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 220.98$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Chicago White Sox | 47c | 219.94$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.77 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Chicago White Sox | 47c | 212.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.72 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Chicago White Sox | 50c | 197.88$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.94 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 118.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…be97backed Chicago White Sox | 48c | 98.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 93.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79f1…178abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 91.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25a1…67b0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Chicago White Sox | 48c | 60.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 21.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 21.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 21.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3056…2b09backed Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…2e3abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.