Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fde1b4da1dac54c28fbd7860fb18df743c5519e83c55c310b04641f278aa04e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SMU Mustangsof Louisville Cardinals, SMU Mustangs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,065 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Louisville Cardinals | 51c | 54,858$28,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,079.93 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed SMU Mustangs | 48c | 18,517$8,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,628.8 | 177 | 42.9%76 W · 101 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked SMU Mustangs | 47c | 12,500$5,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,600 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed SMU Mustangs | 53c | 8,083$4,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,798.99 | 216 | 36.1%78 W · 138 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked SMU Mustangs | 51c | 7,319$3,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,596.44 | 334 | 38.9%130 W · 204 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked SMU Mustangs | 48c | 6,104$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,203.3 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Louisville Cardinals | 53c | 2,894$1,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,531.74 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked SMU Mustangs | 47c | 2,742$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,453.18 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked SMU Mustangs | 48c | 1,094$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.96 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78de…7a0cbacked Louisville Cardinals | 52c | 692.89$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18b…35a6backed Louisville Cardinals | 52c | 681.99$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed SMU Mustangs | 52c | 655.97$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.15 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7e…8a02backed Louisville Cardinals | 52c | 538.26$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Louisville Cardinals | 48c | 414.43$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.12 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Louisville Cardinals | 40c | 406.87$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.27 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…8823backed SMU Mustangs | 50c | 220.06$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.03 | 144 | 47.2%68 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed SMU Mustangs | 48c | 199.06$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.82 | 372 | 46.2%172 W · 200 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked SMU Mustangs | 47c | 149$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.97 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Louisville Cardinals | 52c | 148.69$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.32 | 218 | 50.5%110 W · 108 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed SMU Mustangs | 49c | 140.83$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.62 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed SMU Mustangs | 47c | 125.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…c6b9backed Louisville Cardinals | 18c | 122.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed SMU Mustangs | 49c | 121.21$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.82 | 229 | 50.7%116 W · 113 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked SMU Mustangs | 50c | 111.02$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.51 | 226 | 40.7%92 W · 134 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7623…220bbacked SMU Mustangs | 50c | 99.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Louisville Cardinals | 52c | 95.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfde2…2f40backed Louisville Cardinals | 55c | 90.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25a1…67b0backed Louisville Cardinals | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…4ef0backed SMU Mustangs | 49c | 68.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed SMU Mustangs | 61c | 67.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 353 | 38.5%136 W · 217 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…0c2bbacked SMU Mustangs | 50c | 59.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed SMU Mustangs | 74c | 58.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Louisville Cardinals | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e87…4891backed SMU Mustangs | 50c | 49.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584c…0da9backed SMU Mustangs | 50c | 48.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9683…108bbacked Louisville Cardinals | 48c | 41.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff48…3468backed SMU Mustangs | 51c | 41.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Louisville Cardinals | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 485 | 51.1%248 W · 237 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed SMU Mustangs | 51c | 39.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed SMU Mustangs | 51c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 293 | 37.2%109 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed SMU Mustangs | 47c | 37.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72b2…d03abacked Louisville Cardinals | 52c | 31.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e3…13d4backed SMU Mustangs | 50c | 29.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0466…b3a5backed Louisville Cardinals | 52c | 28.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked SMU Mustangs | 48c | 27.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 296 | 50.7%150 W · 146 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked SMU Mustangs | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 218 | 50.9%111 W · 107 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-6.5)this page
- SMU Mustangs vs. Louisville CardinalsLouisville Cardinals won
- SMU Mustangs vs. Louisville Cardinals: O/U 163.5Under won
- SMU Mustangs vs. Louisville Cardinals: O/U 164.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.