TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Suns vs. Cavaliers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cavaliersof Suns, Cavaliers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,610,248
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,647,192

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,610,248 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 666 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xffa5…0c23backed Suns35c203,412$71,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71,194.14966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+40.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Suns23c147,007$33,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,783.1716848.2%81 W · 87 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b6c…6305backed Suns32c134,364$42,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,653.587941.8%33 W · 46 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x060e…2384backed Suns31c120,000$37,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,199.998037.5%30 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf42…d698backed Suns32c95,000$30,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,399.9817031.8%54 W · 116 L-24.9wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-31.5%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Cavaliers72c94,311$68,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,119.321,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Cavaliers69c80,000$55,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,80059653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb889…a430backed Cavaliers69c80,000$55,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,8009263%58 W · 34 L+9.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Cavaliers69c77,540$53,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,850.231,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Cavaliers70c62,836$44,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,736.145,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers73c60,649$44,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,366.468,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Suns18c44,652$7,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,860.1434062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Cavaliers71c41,490$29,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,919.0444654.3%242 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1692…831fbacked Cavaliers75c30,099$22,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,475.196051.7%31 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4a3…0848backed Suns32c26,696$8,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,423.57149.3%35 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Cavaliers67c25,911$17,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,550.5624650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Cavaliers69c25,286$17,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,838.5721951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde6d…0926backed Cavaliers72c24,617$17,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,992.252352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Cavaliers70c23,609$16,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,016.91,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Cavaliers69c22,785$15,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,118.53,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed Suns30c20,089$6,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,126.7319048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Cavaliers69c18,569$12,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,792.232,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Suns34c18,330$6,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,2882,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Cavaliers67c17,729$11,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,805.238148.6%185 W · 196 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Suns32c16,914$5,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,344.591,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Cavaliers68c16,738$11,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,438.874,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Cavaliers68c15,829$10,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,041.452,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Cavaliers68c15,815$10,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,060.7419747.7%94 W · 103 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Cavaliers65c14,000$9,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,916.071,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers66c13,520$8,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,532.624,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers68c13,240$9,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,234.289,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x681d…08aabacked Suns31c13,200$4,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0545052%26 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Suns28c12,773$3,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,541.5950838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Cavaliers68c12,467$8,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,023.1344459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Cavaliers75c12,198$9,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,049.5148046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Cavaliers69c9,838$6,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,049.917745.5%35 W · 42 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Cavaliers72c9,761$7,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,704.483,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Cavaliers67c7,490$5,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,471.79855.1%54 W · 44 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Suns32c7,110$2,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,275.326339.7%25 W · 38 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Cavaliers67c7,087$4,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,328.158961.8%55 W · 34 L+0.4wins0.00per pick61cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3158…d469backed Cavaliers69c7,000$4,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1703661.1%22 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+26.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Cavaliers68c6,818$4,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,181.8692753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Cavaliers65c6,806$4,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,382.161851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Cavaliers68c6,679$4,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,134.732,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6d0…9391backed Suns32c6,456$2,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,086.0927247.1%128 W · 144 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Cavaliers68c6,349$4,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,031.6847751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Suns33c6,061$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00035438.1%135 W · 219 L+1.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Cavaliers67c6,000$3,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,01047043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Cavaliers65c6,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,10052052.3%272 W · 248 L+31.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+19%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Cavaliers65c5,962$3,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,086.7748347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Suns34c5,882$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00048938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x707b…416abacked Suns1c5,840$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.384562.2%28 W · 17 L+6.5wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+55.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2ec0…f7aabacked Suns32c5,332$1,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,727.4314254.9%78 W · 64 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Suns31c5,200$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,61019751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Cavaliers67c5,160$3,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,701.8550653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2f…3794backed Suns11c5,118$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.31520%3 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Suns33c4,545$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50024151.9%125 W · 116 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked Cavaliers66c4,374$2,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,487.0326751.7%138 W · 129 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9d8…65adbacked Suns13c4,100$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.671450%7 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+46.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x019d…2b01backed Suns31c4,032$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25029037.9%110 W · 180 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Suns31c4,001$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.3176850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c80…249abacked Cavaliers77c3,969$3,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.253450%17 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c03…d894backed Cavaliers69c3,915$2,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,213.595848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers69c3,708$2,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,165.126,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Cavaliers68c3,470$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.451,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed Cavaliers70c3,350$2,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00519351.8%100 W · 93 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Suns26c3,097$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.5365649.2%323 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Suns33c3,050$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.51,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x414b…73bcbacked Suns33c3,030$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00014753.1%78 W · 69 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Suns30c3,021$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.0178445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25a1…67b0backed Cavaliers69c3,000$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9303756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+90.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Cavaliers67c3,000$2,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99045348.1%218 W · 235 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Suns32c2,906$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.9265750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Suns15c2,903$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.4334227.2%93 W · 249 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe15a…7186backed Suns32c2,900$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9281361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+23.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67b4…fb1fbacked Cavaliers67c2,900$1,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Cavaliers69c2,899$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.555947.5%28 W · 31 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Suns0c2,864$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.721,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3273…5a11backed Suns20c2,858$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5702528%7 W · 18 L-4.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-43.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Suns1c2,829$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.728820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3513…3579backed Suns32c2,826$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.941921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Cavaliers68c2,814$1,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.472,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Cavaliers68c2,800$1,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8891,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Cavaliers69c2,775$1,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.319560%117 W · 78 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Suns16c2,772$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44037930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed Suns32c2,720$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.251668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Cavaliers69c2,705$1,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.555455.6%30 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x708d…8a09backed Suns15c2,700$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.0921923.7%52 W · 167 L+0.5wins0.00per pick24cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd864…497ebacked Suns14c2,651$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.44042.5%17 W · 23 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+20.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7de0…7c66backed Suns15c2,583$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38040536.5%148 W · 257 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Suns31c2,500$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77585147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe212…d5f4backed Cavaliers69c2,439$1,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756.045657.1%32 W · 24 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x11e2…8ea7backed Suns14c2,400$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3361145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick31cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Cavaliers75c2,361$1,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.1952460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Suns16c2,338$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.3726753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe95…fa5cbacked Suns31c2,300$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Suns32c2,250$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.3328742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Cavaliers68c2,167$1,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.61,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x250e…e864backed Cavaliers69c2,003$1,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.823551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Suns30c2,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60044337.9%168 W · 275 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.