NBA · resolved market
Suns vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x362f8b10a7ab550db1ea8b11dd612bcff343b9a2aff6947c109cc7b8a792bea6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 51c | 2,910$1,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,484.1 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Under | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 53c | 844$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.32 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 47c | 822.72$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.04 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Over | 47c | 740$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.2 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 649$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.39 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 54c | 456.17$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.33 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 47c | 272.48$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.41 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 47c | 179.4$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.08 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 101.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 54c | 100.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed Over | 45c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x334f…0d32backed Under | 53c | 67.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed Over | 45c | 61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Under | 54c | 54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Under | 55c | 43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 49c | 42.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…1f57backed Under | 55c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 47c | 32.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Suns vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5this page
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Suns vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Suns vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Suns vs. Cavaliers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Suns vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Suns vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Suns vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Suns vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.