NBA · resolved market
Suns vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1a260894091ca29120e3c94556a3eb4e1a39b60bcda989b30659d21fc8b04d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 56c | 7,353$4,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,117.13 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 45c | 1,274$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.16 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 55c | 1,257$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.66 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Under | 56c | 862.5$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 44c | 741.14$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.68 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7422…e383backed Over | 58c | 571.24$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.27 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 56c | 183.56$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.79 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 41c | 169.06$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf221…2575backed Under | 59c | 169.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 157.31$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.8 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…4e1fbacked Under | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 59c | 151.78$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.55 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 41c | 150.71$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.92 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…2ee5backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under | 57c | 76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Under | 57c | 72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 41c | 70.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed Under | 50c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…74cfbacked Under | 51c | 40.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 49c | 35.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 54c | 29.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed Over | 43c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked Over | 43c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…e82ebacked Under | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Suns vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5this page
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Suns vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Suns vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Suns vs. Cavaliers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Suns vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Suns vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Suns vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Suns vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.