NBA · resolved market
Suns vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79df4f06919749a3a2f3ae459763d4354de9bd8092b78f060b4e2e5570060fcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $220,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $225,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $220,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Over | 48c | 100,737$48,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,981.37 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Under | 51c | 62,500$31,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,874.79 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 45,585$23,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,736.42 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 52c | 30,000$15,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,600 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 19,094$9,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,738.02 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0352…3292backed Under | 51c | 13,764$7,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,019.42 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over | 49c | 11,837$5,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,036.73 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 51c | 5,888$3,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,014.51 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 49c | 5,020$2,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,560.1 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 49c | 4,225$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,154.85 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 4,150$2,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,185.54 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Over | 49c | 4,058$1,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,069.58 | 596 | 46.1%275 W · 321 L | -16.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 53c | 4,001$2,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120.78 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,119.99 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…6f22backed Over | 49c | 3,764$1,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,919.42 | 172 | 50%86 W · 86 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f82…f278backed Over | 49c | 3,653$1,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,863.06 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 49c | 3,265$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,665.31 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Over | 47c | 3,241$1,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,729.91 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 50c | 3,098$1,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,542.59 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 52c | 3,046$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…6f34backed Over | 49c | 2,898$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,477.96 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Over | 44c | 2,467$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,381.57 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Over | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 164 | 42.1%69 W · 95 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Over | 53c | 1,900$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 56c | 1,733$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.48 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Over | 49c | 1,723$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.78 | 381 | 48.6%185 W · 196 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Over | 49c | 1,600$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Over | 49c | 1,327$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.53 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Under | 16c | 1,209$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.2 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 53c | 1,010$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.11 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 49c | 809$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.59 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…0c1bbacked Over | 44c | 766$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.96 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -6.6wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 47c | 637.95$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.11 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 52c | 629.63$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.98 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 48c | 600$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 49c | 538.56$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.66 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 50c | 500$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 49c | 475$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.25 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Under | 16c | 468.96$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.72 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 49c | 328.27$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.42 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 52c | 232.65$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.98 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Under | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7422…e383backed Under | 61c | 98.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9b…d8afbacked Over | 49c | 97.39$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 49c | 91.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Under | 51c | 78.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a8…753bbacked Over | 50c | 78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e6…224cbacked Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Under | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 48c | 71.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b0…07bfbacked Over | 49c | 67.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…3e87backed Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 114 | 40.4%46 W · 68 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Over | 49c | 51.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 337 | 30.3%102 W · 235 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Under | 51c | 47.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa852…d55dbacked Under | 53c | 43.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Over | 48c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 154 | 40.3%62 W · 92 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Over | 46c | 30.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1540…04e9backed Over | 50c | 29.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f8…256ebacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bc…a233backed Over | 49c | 26.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 52c | 25.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9137…238dbacked Under | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Suns vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5this page
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Suns vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Suns vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Suns vs. Cavaliers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Suns vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Suns vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Suns vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Suns vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.