AI · resolved market
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03f39d85204b2480747e2d199bc38b724a88f7792273d701f2f64f6a02246c7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $876,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $943,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $876,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 524 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed No | 22c | 81,588$17,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,591.31 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61c2…302abacked Yes | 67c | 64,769$43,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,085.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 38c | 49,307$18,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,603.73 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 22c | 21,298$4,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,761.59 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fa…16cbbacked Yes | 79c | 21,113$16,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,510.31 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 25c | 16,177$4,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,061.61 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6a…481bbacked Yes | 68c | 16,170$10,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,227.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 74c | 15,400$11,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,068.91 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 30c | 13,359$3,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,980.64 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…5a0ebacked Yes | 75c | 13,077$9,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,304.07 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…e83fbacked Yes | 74c | 12,891$9,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,361.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked No | 29c | 12,801$3,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,764.54 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed No | 14c | 12,200$1,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,738 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2e…dd00backed Yes | 67c | 11,781$7,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,873.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 78c | 11,653$9,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,580.47 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed No | 3c | 10,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d49…4f7cbacked No | 6c | 8,570$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 72c | 8,310$5,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,335.97 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 2c | 7,323$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.6 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 25c | 6,949$1,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,729.65 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…ec13backed Yes | 74c | 6,692$4,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,708.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59f7…2ee3backed No | 31c | 6,403$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…20d6backed Yes | 71c | 6,086$4,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,779.35 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca62…fbfabacked Yes | 74c | 6,011$4,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,581.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 12c | 5,799$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.84 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 4c | 5,664$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.64 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd7…5a31backed Yes | 78c | 5,640$4,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 27c | 5,508$1,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510.64 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x921a…ee8dbacked No | 39c | 5,256$2,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,046.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25a1…67b0backed Yes | 66c | 5,206$3,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,779.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 77c | 5,000$3,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 73c | 5,000$3,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.99 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked No | 23c | 4,706$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes | 75c | 4,696$3,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.93 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 26c | 4,468$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.94 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 31c | 4,273$1,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.87 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed No | 17c | 4,259$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.36 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6453…5553backed No | 22c | 4,005$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.55 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 32c | 4,000$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…6df1backed No | 6c | 4,000$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 26c | 4,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.99 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…4cf4backed No | 24c | 3,915$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.9 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed No | 34c | 3,859$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 26c | 3,856$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 2c | 3,800$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.54 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed No | 21c | 3,787$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.98 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…2609backed Yes | 68c | 3,579$2,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.24 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…763abacked Yes | 76c | 3,539$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 30c | 3,297$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1212…99e7backed No | 28c | 3,242$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.61 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 21c | 3,229$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.56 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked No | 21c | 3,084$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…d203backed Yes | 70c | 3,057$2,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f87…f277backed Yes | 75c | 3,000$2,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd016…088dbacked No | 2c | 3,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed No | 21c | 2,994$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.93 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75a5…a5bfbacked Yes | 74c | 2,948$2,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…2665backed Yes | 74c | 2,815$2,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd0…439bbacked Yes | 73c | 2,757$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9830…df31backed Yes | 66c | 2,675$1,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed Yes | 73c | 2,581$1,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.06 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 70c | 2,563$1,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2b…411bbacked Yes | 74c | 2,508$1,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832f…df63backed No | 1c | 2,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 29c | 2,492$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.3 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 5c | 2,454$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.13 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Yes | 71c | 2,305$1,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed Yes | 72c | 2,270$1,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 71c | 2,216$1,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.59 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 79c | 2,214$1,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.44 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3843backed Yes | 61c | 2,166$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.59 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 21c | 2,112$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.74 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15be…f5d6backed No | 2c | 2,069$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 18c | 1,995$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…5f1cbacked Yes | 74c | 1,918$1,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Yes | 78c | 1,906$1,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 64c | 1,896$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 19c | 1,888$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.88 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…fe12backed No | 16c | 1,875$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 76c | 1,852$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.88 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20a5…c50fbacked Yes | 76c | 1,848$1,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x277c…8da2backed Yes | 71c | 1,829$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 29c | 1,809$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.55 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 27c | 1,800$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8225…c4a8backed Yes | 74c | 1,780$1,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcb…c875backed No | 28c | 1,761$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebaa…abacbacked Yes | 57c | 1,750$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ef…da30backed No | 20c | 1,700$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.1 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 26c | 1,700$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 28c | 1,620$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.4 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…c3eebacked No | 6c | 1,618$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked No | 26c | 1,596$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.29 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed No | 26c | 1,580$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…2357backed No | 2c | 1,562$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4617…8bc9backed Yes | 72c | 1,550$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 36c | 1,523$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a16…06f1backed No | 17c | 1,471$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b10…fcebbacked No | 25c | 1,428$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…e2eebacked Yes | 71c | 1,414$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.23 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 73c | 1,383$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.02 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?this page
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?Yes won
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 31?Yes won
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 5?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released by December 31?Yes won
- Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released by March 31?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.