AI · resolved market
Will GPT-5 be released by August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd07046a4f6ab91fc2021bfde4ef473dfa0e3dd463592e7bf0389d0353c9beb8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $744,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $640,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $744,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 8c | 65,994$5,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,082.58 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 9c | 48,493$4,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,268.68 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…2966backed Yes | 11c | 15,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -75%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…4cf4backed Yes | 11c | 13,305$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463.57 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed Yes | 6c | 13,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 3c | 12,300$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.5 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 10c | 12,254$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.28 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 7c | 11,576$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 0c | 11,017$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 9c | 10,195$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 10c | 8,404$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.44 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes | 10c | 8,278$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 7,865$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.93 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes | 9c | 6,555$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 9c | 6,089$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.75 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 8c | 6,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 5c | 5,731$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.93 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3843backed Yes | 10c | 5,730$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…cf01backed Yes | 27c | 5,507$1,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,488.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…20d6backed Yes | 8c | 5,064$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdb…7ea3backed Yes | 9c | 5,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…b56dbacked Yes | 7c | 4,894$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 5c | 4,711$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.81 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 12c | 4,613$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.69 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 9c | 4,070$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.6 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Yes | 12c | 4,004$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked Yes | 7c | 4,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf25…be9ebacked Yes | 9c | 3,930$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.91 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…392cbacked Yes | 5c | 3,540$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2a…e921backed Yes | 11c | 3,187$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.46 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62fe…3983backed Yes | 10c | 3,135$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1f…ba52backed Yes | 10c | 3,004$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked Yes | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…28ccbacked Yes | 11c | 3,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed Yes | 4c | 2,870$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d5…32dabacked Yes | 9c | 2,860$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 12c | 2,800$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 14c | 2,800$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…dcd8backed Yes | 9c | 2,740$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.8 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…b763backed Yes | 9c | 2,705$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…08ffbacked Yes | 12c | 2,686$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.34 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…32cbbacked Yes | 3c | 2,493$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 9c | 2,480$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.74 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 10c | 2,407$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.74 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351b…4d06backed Yes | 9c | 2,400$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 10c | 2,351$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.99 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 15c | 2,339$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912d…f1febacked Yes | 10c | 2,292$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.21 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,091$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.19 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 11c | 2,085$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.53 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db8…2d38backed Yes | 8c | 2,064$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b1…d224backed Yes | 5c | 2,063$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 10c | 2,057$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.27 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 10c | 2,051$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.48 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67d1…1060backed Yes | 15c | 2,020$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.28 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…8c45backed Yes | 10c | 2,015$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…fc5bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,000$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 1c | 1,899$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,866$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.3 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…9dfcbacked Yes | 9c | 1,796$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…208fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,768$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…a8c1backed Yes | 15c | 1,757$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.55 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3940…409dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,746$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc407…64abbacked Yes | 9c | 1,667$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 1c | 1,559$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05b0…4966backed Yes | 10c | 1,430$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed Yes | 2c | 1,425$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a86…c097backed Yes | 8c | 1,400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed Yes | 11c | 1,400$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Yes | 3c | 1,304$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7031…9f78backed Yes | 2c | 1,269$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…e347backed Yes | 11c | 1,242$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1baf…b3a2backed Yes | 11c | 1,240$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc68e…e704backed Yes | 8c | 1,231$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 9c | 1,213$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.13 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 14c | 1,091$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.97 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 9c | 1,088$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe6…b39ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,054$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7774…15d4backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -66%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc99c…f913backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d63…7afcbacked Yes | 17c | 1,000$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x648c…d256backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbc…c75dbacked Yes | 15c | 975.48$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eae…362ebacked Yes | 20c | 884.41$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 10c | 862.09$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.9 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c7…2216backed Yes | 9c | 855.56$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…2b8ebacked Yes | 15c | 850.27$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed Yes | 8c | 843.23$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.41 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Yes | 10c | 842.7$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.27 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70f1…56aebacked No | 79c | 818.12$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c48…6da6backed Yes | 17c | 815.06$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…795abacked Yes | 9c | 814.68$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.52 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…c928backed Yes | 9c | 800$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes | 9c | 793.23$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1212…99e7backed Yes | 8c | 792.44$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 5?this page
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?Yes won
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?Yes won
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 31?Yes won
- Will GPT-5 be released by December 31?Yes won
- Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released by March 31?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.