AI · resolved market
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8adeda8577493f38554ff8a27941581be16dfba02b98ba0f97b2a786ed541c99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $580,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $564,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $580,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 206 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce66…cc64backed No | 2c | 24,604$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.89 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 7c | 17,606$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.13 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 5c | 17,034$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.63 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked No | 2c | 16,080$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 3c | 14,995$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.88 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 12,300$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 2c | 8,299$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.23 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 8c | 8,193$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.96 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 6c | 7,121$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.85 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 5c | 6,410$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.25 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x538f…b40ebacked No | 3c | 6,000$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed No | 0c | 5,744$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 5,100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked No | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 4c | 4,915$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.85 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 9c | 4,713$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.93 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 3c | 4,604$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.78 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 4c | 4,604$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.68 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 1c | 4,575$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…c460backed No | 4c | 4,348$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 15cpaid | +93%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe01b…ba2abacked No | 2c | 4,126$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d87…2bf9backed No | 1c | 3,497$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcccf…4aedbacked No | 3c | 3,456$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 3c | 3,400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x084e…8635backed No | 6c | 3,365$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x679c…f8ddbacked No | 2c | 3,000$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 5c | 2,941$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.48 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…aa46backed No | 11c | 2,399$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.65 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +55%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 2c | 2,395$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 31c | 2,043$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.26 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed No | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 3c | 2,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c55…e0f8backed No | 12c | 1,847$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…dd3abacked No | 2c | 1,714$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes | 69c | 1,605$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.47 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 3c | 1,590$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd13…b4febacked No | 10c | 1,578$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed No | 21c | 1,578$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.76 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…549bbacked No | 6c | 1,572$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe646…c07cbacked No | 1c | 1,550$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6444…c8d5backed No | 1c | 1,538$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked No | 2c | 1,475$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 3c | 1,431$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 16c | 1,403$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.77 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x431c…db65backed No | 3c | 1,367$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a7…438dbacked No | 1c | 1,348$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…00b6backed No | 3c | 1,344$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 6c | 1,324$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.33 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 76c | 1,300$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.75 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1da…c9f0backed No | 3c | 1,283$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…e347backed No | 3c | 1,036$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 54c | 1,033$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.34 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…6b37backed No | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 3c | 1,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d5…9562backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed No | 9c | 999.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…7a35backed No | 7c | 981$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…922abacked No | 6c | 942.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…f9acbacked No | 3c | 935.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 62c | 929.32$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…54c5backed No | 3c | 790$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes | 75c | 770$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.5 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…02e5backed No | 9c | 757.01$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 9c | 753$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30c9…54babacked No | 7c | 747$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 2c | 728.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 69c | 703.34$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d0…a970backed No | 2c | 700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf124…ec88backed No | 6c | 696$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b78…a88abacked No | 3c | 690$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 18c | 674.86$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.32 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe5…e559backed No | 3c | 663$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…b816backed No | 8c | 651$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked Yes | 71c | 650.1$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed97…1403backed No | 6c | 648$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae9d…9790backed No | 6c | 619$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7edc…0c78backed No | 6c | 614$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 607.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc48…cf01backed No | 6c | 563$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3345…3602backed No | 5c | 545$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf786…73ccbacked No | 9c | 544.85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…54f9backed No | 6c | 539$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff2…dc99backed No | 3c | 538$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 5c | 536.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x522a…194ebacked No | 5c | 525$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x806f…abeabacked No | 6c | 520$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…8632backed No | 7c | 509$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 6c | 508.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked No | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…573abacked No | 3c | 498.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…5e3cbacked No | 6c | 483$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c64…3f45backed No | 5c | 470$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17b…46c7backed No | 2c | 465$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb43d…c625backed No | 6c | 462$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae6…c200backed No | 12c | 455.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e0…be8abacked No | 6c | 452$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac63…7afcbacked No | 8c | 451.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9302…5310backed No | 7c | 446$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x568f…852ebacked No | 6c | 439$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0912…6291backed No | 8c | 437$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GPT-5 be released by December 31?this page
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?Yes won
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?Yes won
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 31?Yes won
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 5?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released by March 31?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.