AI · resolved market
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dae2c2d1931a80807a97bba13c7d2ac68aa19ba8a01361636cbfa5014abf229
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,458,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,322,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,458,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 454 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ece…7063backed Yes | 15c | 87,417$13,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,221.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 58,867$2,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,598.52 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…c547backed Yes | 48c | 36,456$17,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,498.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb5…6ba7backed No | 52c | 36,456$18,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,498.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508f…9df2backed No | 52c | 34,281$17,826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,454.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe6…c41abacked Yes | 48c | 34,281$16,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,454.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed Yes | 3c | 30,077$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Yes | 3c | 26,400$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4617…8bc9backed Yes | 8c | 24,325$1,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,983.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked No | 73c | 21,935$15,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,968.21 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed Yes | 11c | 20,188$2,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,207.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 19,351$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.12 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 7c | 17,719$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.75 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb330…ff74backed Yes | 17c | 15,593$2,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,596.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…d203backed Yes | 7c | 15,202$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb328…00debacked Yes | 5c | 14,407$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9c…1814backed Yes | 7c | 13,727$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f2…d036backed Yes | 11c | 13,476$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,464.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 11,651$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.89 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 6c | 11,353$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.21 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 2c | 10,617$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.53 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…645ebacked Yes | 10c | 10,191$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 7c | 9,974$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.42 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a72…1b09backed Yes | 2c | 9,359$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee56…bba5backed Yes | 6c | 8,519$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5338…ef74backed Yes | 3c | 8,480$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…2194backed Yes | 9c | 8,131$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0695…ff25backed Yes | 3c | 8,130$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ac…84f3backed Yes | 4c | 7,974$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.49 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67d…9cafbacked Yes | 12c | 7,619$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…5fa3backed Yes | 58c | 7,375$4,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,305.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…2ff6backed Yes | 7c | 7,073$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1347…bc3dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,945$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304d…c4bdbacked Yes | 5c | 6,590$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 1c | 6,300$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.3 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2313…3ee6backed Yes | 28c | 6,095$1,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,689.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76fb…c306backed Yes | 9c | 5,813$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 25c | 5,601$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,215.8 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 2c | 5,500$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.04 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0400…d963backed Yes | 14c | 5,316$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639b…99e7backed Yes | 7c | 5,223$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75a5…a5bfbacked Yes | 6c | 5,034$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.62 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc75…40fabacked Yes | 28c | 4,629$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…8c45backed Yes | 16c | 4,580$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2c…a85ebacked Yes | 8c | 4,374$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked Yes | 0c | 4,193$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e5…8b97backed Yes | 7c | 4,085$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…4cf4backed No | 73c | 4,044$2,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.81 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf25…be9ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,717$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…a8c1backed Yes | 16c | 3,664$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.23 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb803…5206backed Yes | 5c | 3,638$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 10c | 3,590$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.68 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 4c | 3,468$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.61 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4812…616dbacked Yes | 6c | 3,198$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…763abacked Yes | 38c | 3,196$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b42…1562backed Yes | 2c | 3,185$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 5c | 3,127$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.58 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff0…8340backed Yes | 1c | 3,113$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c0…28f4backed Yes | 9c | 3,078$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.92 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664e…41cebacked Yes | 8c | 3,014$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf14b…1825backed Yes | 10c | 3,007$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2539…74c6backed Yes | 11c | 2,970$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1295…8eb9backed Yes | 3c | 2,956$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…880ebacked Yes | 35c | 2,927$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde31…4f59backed Yes | 7c | 2,857$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25d5…32dabacked Yes | 7c | 2,751$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c50…d3fdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,631$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 6c | 2,581$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf71…1f61backed Yes | 8c | 2,511$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…b808backed Yes | 4c | 2,502$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…dafcbacked Yes | 39c | 2,500$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.71 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8b…b9e4backed Yes | 5c | 2,434$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 23c | 2,429$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.08 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 1c | 2,412$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3455…ddccbacked Yes | 12c | 2,402$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…145dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,348$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f99…57f8backed Yes | 4c | 2,340$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…7ebfbacked Yes | 4c | 2,296$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a36…0796backed Yes | 4c | 2,275$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54d2…80e1backed Yes | 4c | 2,264$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbc…c75dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,212$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 5c | 2,201$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.38 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 2c | 2,183$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…bcbcbacked No | 78c | 2,167$1,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e6…1fb3backed Yes | 5c | 2,130$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5c…7ba1backed Yes | 3c | 2,127$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285f…e012backed Yes | 5c | 2,104$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 76c | 2,069$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.69 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 71c | 2,041$1,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.58 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 72c | 2,039$1,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.01 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c92…1194backed Yes | 7c | 2,003$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…44c3backed Yes | 14c | 1,919$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb66f…ea77backed Yes | 3c | 1,852$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…8d43backed No | 67c | 1,800$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…4273backed Yes | 26c | 1,781$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…13bdbacked Yes | 39c | 1,766$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.96 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -53%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 69c | 1,734$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.8 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8083…4a0bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,732$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4910…cfb3backed Yes | 6c | 1,724$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?this page
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?Yes won
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?Yes won
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 31?Yes won
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 5?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released by December 31?Yes won
- Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released by March 31?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.