AI · resolved market
Will GPT-5 be released by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4580a189fbfa3c70907f21ff4343b64c63913c3a10c033ba1dcca2f1bd35606
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0785…22f3backed Yes | 23c | 8,678$2,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,022.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +572.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4deb…97a5backed Yes | 3c | 4,740$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…0cf7backed Yes | 4c | 4,633$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 19cpaid | +67%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…a8c1backed Yes | 1c | 2,819$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,502$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e1…8413backed Yes | 2c | 2,152$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x872d…159bbacked No | 75c | 2,095$1,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 76c | 2,000$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1c…4405backed Yes | 6c | 1,985$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.56 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ecc…24c7backed Yes | 1c | 1,972$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,829$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df6…7f12backed Yes | 1c | 1,526$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc11…79a3backed No | 74c | 1,357$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…faaabacked No | 78c | 1,132$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…145dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,023$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…eb07backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66d6…50c7backed Yes | 8c | 910$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 6c | 861.21$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03cb…4bf9backed Yes | 2c | 789.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd68…5d4dbacked Yes | 5c | 772.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 6c | 741.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 24c | 688.51$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.92 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 25c | 664.49$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.19 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea0…27f4backed Yes | 2c | 654.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +196.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…7a1bbacked Yes | 16c | 650$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 23c | 608.01$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.14 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 21c | 499.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 9c | 496.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 17c | 462.29$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.43 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304e…8c9bbacked No | 78c | 453.16$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 26c | 450$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 446.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 4c | 406.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 4c | 383.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa768…eb1bbacked Yes | 5c | 373.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 26c | 367.34$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes | 18c | 342.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437d…6c11backed Yes | 6c | 341.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…9f94backed Yes | 6c | 339.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e72…9938backed Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -62%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 77c | 273.87$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.25 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…5769backed Yes | 8c | 270.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 7c | 266.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 22c | 215$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x771a…096fbacked Yes | 20c | 203.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…7f26backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked No | 53c | 193.24$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.19 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd430…4847backed Yes | 27c | 183.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b4…7d8fbacked Yes | 25c | 180$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc324…4cd6backed No | 74c | 170.01$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1387…f8cbbacked Yes | 51c | 159.85$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4e…42d8backed No | 79c | 153.87$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…a363backed Yes | 32c | 153.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 77c | 122.59$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 78c | 110.77$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…db4cbacked Yes | 23c | 101.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd8…f68abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ac…fcbebacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -89%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…5a5cbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…6cdcbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f1…1957backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…e92abacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fb…c6d7backed Yes | 23c | 95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0627…75b5backed Yes | 27c | 92.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…5788backed No | 78c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc882…1105backed Yes | 24c | 75.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…c713backed No | 73c | 74.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0b…5cd6backed Yes | 18c | 66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf359…65d3backed Yes | 25c | 60.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc303…976cbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ca…86f2backed Yes | 20c | 55.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…37b5backed Yes | 43c | 55.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed No | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 49c | 53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x691f…d3ecbacked Yes | 24c | 48.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc09d…262cbacked Yes | 23c | 48.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 26c | 41.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c3…7524backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +42%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf330…f779backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60dd…f6b6backed No | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d0…1620backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6d…0761backed No | 77c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304a…eacfbacked Yes | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05af…927abacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…7d8fbacked No | 74c | 21.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x423a…4f1dbacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ff7cbacked No | 77c | 18.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…9ac0backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bca…c1aabacked No | 78c | 13.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GPT-5 be released by March 31?this page
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?Yes won
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?Yes won
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 31?Yes won
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 5?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released by December 31?Yes won
- Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.