TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$335,574
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$375,245

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $335,574 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 263 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x20e8…b663backed Yes56c52,012$29,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,126.7220%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad16…e610backed No44c52,012$22,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,126.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No74c22,115$16,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,776.848543.5%37 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x259b…dafcbacked Yes26c20,323$5,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,372.241428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No74c10,466$7,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,758.552147.6%10 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick63cpaid-30.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7759…6020backed Yes30c9,669$2,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,858.8430%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No70c9,189$6,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,763.9425731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6584…3843backed No80c6,270$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,270.061250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes5c6,177$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.636291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked No49c4,175$2,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,139.444353.5%23 W · 20 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No66c4,150$2,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,408.773240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88fa…a8c1backed Yes48c3,762$1,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,787.352441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ba…408fbacked No79c3,000$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6403100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes37c2,875$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,077.97616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61ec…0cf7backed Yes43c2,708$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.61136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick19cpaid+67%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked Yes26c2,589$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.299915.2%15 W · 84 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No29c2,498$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,783.815832.8%19 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d83…0bb9backed No74c2,288$1,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.768644.2%38 W · 48 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes71c2,250$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.982941.4%12 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+96.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c2,071$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7415615.4%24 W · 132 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc1ba…e41ebacked Yes21c2,004$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.4630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed No29c2,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.981233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-31.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6410…64a3backed Yes25c1,713$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc45…13bdbacked Yes46c1,672$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.342626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-53%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c1c…4405backed Yes37c1,616$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.622025%5 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4be…76b7backed No74c1,560$1,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes36c1,524$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.1530127.2%82 W · 219 L+1.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked No78c1,500$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3302965.5%19 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4baf…5fdfbacked Yes19c1,483$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.391533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-53.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb07d…23dcbacked No39c1,314$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.336829.4%20 W · 48 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No49c1,310$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.2410338.8%40 W · 63 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes11c1,208$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.181816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes71c1,202$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.66425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes39c1,124$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.5511030.9%34 W · 76 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x048a…eb07backed Yes39c1,114$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.544117.1%7 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce5…1432backed Yes8c1,022$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36fd…c834backed Yes47c992.18$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.782326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No79c939.54$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.694020%8 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-67.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c848.49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.31,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd053…f7c0backed Yes46c815.55$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.0280%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21b6…b5bcbacked Yes68c799.99$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes27c769.65$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.2220418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No44c756.74$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.772437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+60.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes2c756.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.93407.5%3 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-70.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes42c730$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.11717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-66%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes21c680$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.52420.8%5 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3d1…c2acbacked No58c648.25$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.63425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-56.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf4cf…1f03backed No52c643.17$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.551030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-51.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed No38c603.04$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+160.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dda…8e6dbacked Yes29c600.45$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-57.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes24c553.06$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.4825122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c92…1322backed No49c527.73$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.14875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e64…9917backed Yes24c517$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d2…d6d2backed No33c510$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.72638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d1b…1419backed Yes45c502.48$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.636336.5%23 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0785…22f3backed Yes76c500$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+572.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e97…9ddebacked Yes53c471.7$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8b5…b789backed Yes22c466.6$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.325817.2%10 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+77%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7960…f8a8backed Yes73c465$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.15616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-75.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2826…f448backed No75c456.41$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.411266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5d6…24aabacked No22c452.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+105.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes5c450.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.45695.8%4 W · 65 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-78.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1b…e450backed Yes20c450$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac63…7afcbacked No78c447.66$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed No32c444$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.173455.9%19 W · 15 L+6.5wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+71.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4574…3f29backed Yes48c361.23$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b87…274cbacked No79c360.47$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.71330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-53.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec40…fce5backed No35c312.62$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.24231%13 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-0.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93d2…c131backed No32c312.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+54.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No45c311.98$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.398220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No77c300$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+24.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdce8…95d4backed Yes44c295.45$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked No74c294.8$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.22445.8%11 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+9.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9a24…4391backed Yes71c281.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ae6…c200backed No53c280.64$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No46c258.62$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.291560%9 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+18.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd1d…e206backed No44c252.56$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.56450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed No55c251.02$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.182190.5%19 W · 2 L+5.1wins+0.24per pick66cpaid+39.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed Yes68c250.43$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.291533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49f3…76dcbacked Yes57c250.34$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.99520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No50c244$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.663652.8%19 W · 17 L+5.5wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+23.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7fdf…3b40backed Yes21c238.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502718.5%5 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick24cpaid+8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No28c236$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.1212839.8%51 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe230…fca2backed Yes21c234.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc74…91b1backed No43c233.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.86728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-48.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb220…2a5dbacked Yes30c225$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-73.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4abb…1001backed Yes48c224$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…c7b7backed Yes48c222$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9834…c4bdbacked No52c222$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e3…7436backed No52c220$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83ea…aebdbacked Yes48c220$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6510…fe03backed Yes48c220$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2244…444bbacked No52c220$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2290…80bebacked Yes61c219.24$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.811250%6 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25f6…6bd7backed Yes48c218$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3494…169abacked No52c218$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes15c217.47$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.719834.8%69 W · 129 L-23.7wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3166…a9febacked Yes46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001421.4%3 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid+42.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb925…3854backed No52c214$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.