AI · resolved market
Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd100c5d1cfc1de8e6df046b92dbe7aae4bcab6d3212aa6ae3477d59ec724ec0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $335,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $375,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $335,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 263 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20e8…b663backed Yes | 56c | 52,012$29,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,126.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad16…e610backed No | 44c | 52,012$22,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,126.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 74c | 22,115$16,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,776.84 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…dafcbacked Yes | 26c | 20,323$5,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,372.24 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 74c | 10,466$7,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,758.55 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7759…6020backed Yes | 30c | 9,669$2,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,858.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 70c | 9,189$6,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,763.94 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3843backed No | 80c | 6,270$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270.06 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 5c | 6,177$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.63 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 49c | 4,175$2,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,139.44 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 66c | 4,150$2,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408.77 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…a8c1backed Yes | 48c | 3,762$1,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,787.35 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ba…408fbacked No | 79c | 3,000$2,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 37c | 2,875$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…0cf7backed Yes | 43c | 2,708$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 19cpaid | +67%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 26c | 2,589$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.29 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 29c | 2,498$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,783.81 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed No | 74c | 2,288$1,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.76 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 71c | 2,250$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.98 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 2,071$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ba…e41ebacked Yes | 21c | 2,004$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 29c | 2,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6410…64a3backed Yes | 25c | 1,713$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…13bdbacked Yes | 46c | 1,672$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.34 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -53%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1c…4405backed Yes | 37c | 1,616$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.62 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4be…76b7backed No | 74c | 1,560$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 36c | 1,524$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.15 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 78c | 1,500$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4baf…5fdfbacked Yes | 19c | 1,483$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.39 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked No | 39c | 1,314$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.33 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 49c | 1,310$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.24 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 11c | 1,208$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.18 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes | 71c | 1,202$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 39c | 1,124$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.55 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…eb07backed Yes | 39c | 1,114$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.54 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…1432backed Yes | 8c | 1,022$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed Yes | 47c | 992.18$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.78 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 79c | 939.54$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.69 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 848.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed Yes | 46c | 815.55$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.02 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…b5bcbacked Yes | 68c | 799.99$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 27c | 769.65$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.22 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 44c | 756.74$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.77 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 2c | 756.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 42c | 730$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.1 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -66%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 21c | 680$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.5 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d1…c2acbacked No | 58c | 648.25$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed No | 52c | 643.17$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…ea34backed No | 38c | 603.04$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +160.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8e6dbacked Yes | 29c | 600.45$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 24c | 553.06$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.48 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed No | 49c | 527.73$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.14 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e64…9917backed Yes | 24c | 517$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed No | 33c | 510$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.7 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 45c | 502.48$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.63 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…22f3backed Yes | 76c | 500$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +572.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e97…9ddebacked Yes | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 22c | 466.6$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.32 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 73c | 465$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2826…f448backed No | 75c | 456.41$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.41 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d6…24aabacked No | 22c | 452.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 450.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1b…e450backed Yes | 20c | 450$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac63…7afcbacked No | 78c | 447.66$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 32c | 444$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.17 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…3f29backed Yes | 48c | 361.23$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b87…274cbacked No | 79c | 360.47$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed No | 35c | 312.62$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.2 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93d2…c131backed No | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 45c | 311.98$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.39 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce8…95d4backed Yes | 44c | 295.45$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked No | 74c | 294.8$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a24…4391backed Yes | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae6…c200backed No | 53c | 280.64$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 46c | 258.62$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.29 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1d…e206backed No | 44c | 252.56$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 55c | 251.02$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.18 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +5.1wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 68c | 250.43$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.29 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f3…76dcbacked Yes | 57c | 250.34$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 50c | 244$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.66 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdf…3b40backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 28c | 236$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.12 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe230…fca2backed Yes | 21c | 234.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc74…91b1backed No | 43c | 233.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…2a5dbacked Yes | 30c | 225$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4abb…1001backed Yes | 48c | 224$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…c7b7backed Yes | 48c | 222$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9834…c4bdbacked No | 52c | 222$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e3…7436backed No | 52c | 220$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ea…aebdbacked Yes | 48c | 220$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6510…fe03backed Yes | 48c | 220$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2244…444bbacked No | 52c | 220$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2290…80bebacked Yes | 61c | 219.24$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.81 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f6…6bd7backed Yes | 48c | 218$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…169abacked No | 52c | 218$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 15c | 217.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3166…a9febacked Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb925…3854backed No | 52c | 214$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?this page
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?Yes won
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?Yes won
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 31?Yes won
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 5?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released by December 31?Yes won
- Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released by March 31?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.