AI · resolved market
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02ecadc1573b897e74b1150db0099005a678f863bc8cab793410e8eb9e962ad8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,171,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,018,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,171,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 662 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf88…800ebacked Yes | 72c | 85,757$61,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,970.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfb…de50backed No | 0c | 55,330$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd7…5a31backed No | 7c | 53,500$3,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,791 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 52,815$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.81 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed No | 22c | 45,190$10,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,151.39 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d49…4f7cbacked No | 14c | 42,367$5,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,728.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed No | 21c | 40,000$8,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,399.99 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed No | 6c | 33,339$1,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,956.1 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 41c | 29,859$12,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,290.61 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab8…c0d6backed No | 7c | 28,068$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 52c | 27,854$14,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,239.56 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 23c | 26,520$6,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,072.92 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…4f53backed Yes | 50c | 26,014$13,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,984.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a45…0876backed No | 5c | 25,096$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2e…dd00backed Yes | 50c | 23,893$11,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,047.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 31c | 22,751$7,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,026.92 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 25c | 21,338$5,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,296.6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229a…54cebacked No | 9c | 21,110$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 51c | 20,180$10,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,288.05 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed No | 4c | 19,913$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -78%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 5c | 19,770$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.08 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed No | 22c | 16,849$3,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,733.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…6df1backed No | 8c | 16,220$1,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,369.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69cd…06f3backed No | 12c | 15,758$1,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,951.22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60e…d332backed No | 8c | 15,202$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed No | 2c | 14,734$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…68abbacked No | 4c | 14,281$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 52c | 14,155$7,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,734.53 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a17…a50bbacked No | 2c | 13,101$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked No | 1c | 12,089$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde66…6981backed No | 17c | 11,867$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa269…7d1fbacked No | 14c | 11,664$1,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked No | 3c | 11,000$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.87 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03be…f6d9backed No | 10c | 11,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 50c | 10,965$5,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,484.62 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c1…2727backed No | 34c | 10,632$3,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,647.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4678…971abacked No | 18c | 10,160$1,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,843.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…20d6backed Yes | 51c | 10,000$5,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,874.46 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed No | 23c | 10,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…2966backed Yes | 40c | 10,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,999.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -75%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked No | 5c | 9,779$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.73 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00bd…3bdfbacked No | 3c | 9,308$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 23c | 9,300$2,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,175.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 7c | 9,289$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.88 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked No | 13c | 9,221$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 31c | 9,035$2,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,757.79 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 2c | 8,866$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.04 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -70%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa730…18d3backed Yes | 47c | 8,720$4,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,611.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 35c | 8,642$3,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,013.52 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…f0f1backed No | 21c | 8,437$1,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,771.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4964…b402backed No | 11c | 8,320$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…f634backed No | 12c | 8,233$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed2f…9d1bbacked No | 12c | 8,148$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.54 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f07…9517backed No | 10c | 8,123$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked No | 52c | 8,000$4,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,190 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 7,951$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.09 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe854…0865backed No | 2c | 7,778$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b7…ff2fbacked Yes | 38c | 7,607$2,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,713.64 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…8a20backed No | 3c | 7,522$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e2…af4bbacked No | 6c | 7,238$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7774…15d4backed No | 4c | 7,036$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…bd86backed No | 8c | 6,981$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcb…c875backed No | 10c | 6,893$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…db4bbacked No | 10c | 6,840$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 74c | 6,801$5,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,740.37 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b98…b8e1backed No | 16c | 6,752$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ff…8ed7backed No | 6c | 6,388$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01dc…577ebacked No | 9c | 6,364$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 36c | 6,255$2,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,228.31 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cc…9211backed No | 1c | 6,049$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1212…99e7backed No | 25c | 5,934$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.03 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fa…16cbbacked Yes | 74c | 5,743$4,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,497.83 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…00b6backed No | 7c | 5,182$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…4cf4backed No | 47c | 5,000$2,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,369.78 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 16c | 5,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 9c | 4,996$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +274.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…4f8abacked No | 2c | 4,984$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 4,901$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.41 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed Yes | 74c | 4,849$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a8…6b32backed No | 5c | 4,720$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…c486backed No | 20c | 4,642$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d01…8064backed Yes | 77c | 4,567$3,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 10c | 4,523$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.6 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked No | 9c | 4,509$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff6…8289backed No | 3c | 4,500$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ee…df72backed No | 32c | 4,478$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443.7 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked No | 21c | 4,460$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd0…439bbacked No | 46c | 4,345$1,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,977.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6a…481bbacked Yes | 44c | 4,328$1,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,404.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 10c | 4,327$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.77 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…4a54backed No | 12c | 4,321$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x679c…f8ddbacked No | 10c | 4,248$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a16…06f1backed No | 10c | 4,216$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 47c | 4,200$1,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,954.99 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d1…a8eebacked No | 22c | 4,106$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3843backed Yes | 76c | 4,092$3,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…fc5bbacked No | 42c | 4,000$1,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.98 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…82d3backed No | 10c | 3,941$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.41 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d7…be03backed No | 5c | 3,929$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked No | 10c | 3,851$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?this page
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?Yes won
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 31?Yes won
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 5?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released by December 31?Yes won
- Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released by March 31?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.