AI · resolved market
Will GPT-5 be released by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x948a7977c73463f28eacc81e62e120724f64fdb9f606a9b8f64a061477585823
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $782,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $800,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $782,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 263 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce66…cc64backed No | 7c | 80,085$5,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,973.47 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed No | 8c | 64,815$5,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,429.95 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 21c | 36,392$7,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,718.91 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 12c | 30,296$3,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,613.55 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 15c | 19,411$2,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,928.66 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 79c | 19,081$15,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,069.87 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked No | 15c | 14,900$2,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,162 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b1…dbb1backed No | 3c | 12,654$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 10,332$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.52 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 24c | 8,929$2,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,145.25 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 25c | 8,605$2,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,141.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 15c | 8,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.99 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…2a3abacked No | 17c | 7,636$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 23c | 7,583$1,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,765.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked No | 12c | 6,310$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 3c | 6,238$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.64 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed No | 12c | 6,227$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.93 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 15c | 6,000$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…763abacked Yes | 79c | 5,934$4,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 12c | 5,868$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.21 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 16c | 5,000$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.52 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f51ebacked No | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3753…dc42backed No | 17c | 4,796$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +126.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 12c | 4,545$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.11 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60b7…ff2fbacked Yes | 67c | 3,991$2,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,301.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a16…06f1backed No | 7c | 3,816$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…a307backed No | 0c | 3,724$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 67c | 3,684$2,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x603b…0fbfbacked Yes | 68c | 3,605$2,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,148.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 3,563$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.97 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6453…5553backed No | 16c | 3,500$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5626…0fe6backed No | 11c | 3,439$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 9c | 3,300$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.68 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 19c | 3,285$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.51 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59f7…2ee3backed No | 16c | 3,203$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No | 17c | 3,180$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.8 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -7.2wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 2c | 3,103$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.27 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d01…8064backed Yes | 65c | 3,040$1,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,052.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…6767backed No | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 12c | 2,840$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.25 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a7…fbb2backed Yes | 75c | 2,661$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad86…cd10backed Yes | 78c | 2,376$1,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.35 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 18c | 2,229$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.79 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 71c | 2,000$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed No | 3c | 2,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 14c | 1,998$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.73 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6165…6696backed Yes | 80c | 1,981$1,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62fe…3983backed No | 5c | 1,907$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 17c | 1,881$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.66 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b10…fcebbacked No | 23c | 1,830$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 14c | 1,796$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 7c | 1,679$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.18 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 19c | 1,555$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7e…c200backed Yes | 80c | 1,539$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.87 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 10c | 1,525$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed No | 15c | 1,517$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabca…cfd1backed No | 17c | 1,480$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 24c | 1,355$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.73 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 72c | 1,355$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.96 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 14c | 1,343$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.23 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98e8…ab20backed No | 14c | 1,335$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.35 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…e630backed Yes | 79c | 1,247$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.83 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e23…7788backed No | 16c | 1,216$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…e347backed No | 24c | 1,198$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.38 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b78…a88abacked No | 13c | 1,130$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x284f…31efbacked Yes | 67c | 1,099$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 1,017$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.21 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25a1…67b0backed Yes | 71c | 1,013$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed No | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b98…b8e1backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf20…f904backed Yes | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed No | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 20c | 992.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.16 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed Yes | 65c | 986.38$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.72 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 16c | 981.53$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.34 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 7c | 898.75$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 12c | 886.97$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…69f9backed Yes | 80c | 867.01$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.91 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…32cbbacked No | 3c | 853.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2d…a101backed Yes | 79c | 840.52$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 76c | 831.49$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.43 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed No | 10c | 804.88$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.48 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ea…1e78backed No | 3c | 790.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 4c | 771.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x679c…f8ddbacked No | 23c | 769.99$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.3 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…b593backed No | 37c | 750$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed No | 13c | 749.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.12 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked No | 7c | 669.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc182…11d7backed No | 8c | 652.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 13c | 650$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…00b6backed No | 15c | 643.53$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.29 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c0…28f4backed Yes | 78c | 632.7$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2f…f3c6backed No | 3c | 609.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed No | 15c | 600$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed Yes | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae7…1884backed No | 2c | 600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 31?this page
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?Yes won
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?Yes won
- Will GPT-5 be released by August 5?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released by December 31?Yes won
- Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released by March 31?No won
- Will GPT-5 be released by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.