Token Launches · resolved market
Pump.fun >$10B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9c6eafb4ef71073f8324b7baf84cd997ff6a31e01957e920ad24bdf3ebf0e23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $453,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $425,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $453,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8389…a317backed Yes | 9c | 100,693$8,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,759.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…114dbacked Yes | 0c | 66,200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes | 6c | 30,290$1,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,772.02 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 0c | 20,391$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…657fbacked Yes | 12c | 15,066$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880.39 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +200.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 6c | 13,234$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.31 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…7e1cbacked Yes | 3c | 11,531$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4812…616dbacked Yes | 10c | 10,070$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 9c | 8,448$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 6c | 7,978$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.69 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…a307backed Yes | 0c | 7,222$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 6,785$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 6,748$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.62 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286c…5c4fbacked Yes | 11c | 5,303$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…87a0backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d2…5cacbacked Yes | 6c | 4,840$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…fce2backed Yes | 8c | 4,301$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb84…7ecbbacked Yes | 13c | 3,765$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea05…4022backed Yes | 3c | 3,252$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6402…2fa1backed Yes | 6c | 3,200$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd977…270ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,912$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1dd…87d0backed Yes | 15c | 2,533$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 11c | 2,495$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa920…be41backed Yes | 11c | 2,364$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.37 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 10c | 2,252$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 11c | 2,080$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.09 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 4c | 1,744$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…6c7cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,600$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…512bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…503abacked Yes | 18c | 1,397$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ca…fc4bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,286$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecca…1cb1backed Yes | 16c | 1,220$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6f…34c1backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c7…815abacked Yes | 17c | 1,081$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 1,068$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 16c | 999.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 948.92$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.21 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69cd…06f3backed Yes | 11c | 934.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 11c | 893.21$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.79 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91b…4e2bbacked Yes | 11c | 780$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 2c | 755.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49cf…f910backed Yes | 13c | 734.51$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9503…c47fbacked Yes | 8c | 689.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f2…b2b9backed Yes | 13c | 676.69$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abf…6024backed Yes | 15c | 599.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb87…6883backed Yes | 7c | 571.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 541.94$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…c74dbacked Yes | 8c | 499.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 14c | 469.47$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ab…58e0backed Yes | 11c | 459.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe08…42eebacked Yes | 15c | 452.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5816…3c5abacked Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe6…6adebacked Yes | 3c | 352.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3857…6704backed Yes | 9c | 332$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…933abacked Yes | 9c | 275$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe204…7cc5backed Yes | 16c | 270.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515a…de7fbacked Yes | 15c | 268.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…cdd8backed Yes | 11c | 268$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 19c | 242.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 241.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc07c…c4b7backed Yes | 17c | 238.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe995…5891backed Yes | 10c | 202.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc41b…d878backed Yes | 15c | 194.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d32…4911backed Yes | 12c | 178.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55fd…4f1dbacked Yes | 6c | 167$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed Yes | 15c | 155.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4e…1b89backed Yes | 14c | 146.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25a1…67b0backed Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…7f92backed Yes | 17c | 110.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…8b4fbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7153…02f0backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeac3…50c5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fe…1779backed Yes | 18c | 96.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 14c | 83.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 72c | 28.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 80c | 22.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 78c | 20.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +11.3wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pump.fun >$10B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?this page
- Pump.fun >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes won
- Pump.fun >$5B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes won
- Pump.fun >$8B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.