Token Launches · resolved market
Pump.fun >$8B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x887df6242bdcfded2c0cc3b5a29967ffa1e474763cfebb5915e40bb0ba480b1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $230,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $172,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $230,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8de0…87a0backed Yes | 1c | 31,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde66…6981backed Yes | 20c | 22,461$4,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,392.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8389…a317backed Yes | 10c | 17,995$1,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,881.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 2c | 17,645$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…5e23backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 10,294$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.45 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 10c | 9,541$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.81 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 16c | 5,923$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.14 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecca…1cb1backed Yes | 5c | 5,390$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…657fbacked Yes | 26c | 5,199$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +200.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes | 2c | 5,102$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…114dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 74c | 2,989$2,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.72 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,956$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 12c | 2,725$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.85 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2501…472cbacked Yes | 26c | 2,321$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…db67backed Yes | 1c | 2,270$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…7e1cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,906$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…1434backed Yes | 7c | 1,829$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba99…2a27backed No | 75c | 1,735$1,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb84…7ecbbacked Yes | 20c | 1,665$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4812…616dbacked Yes | 72c | 1,552$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd697…def2backed Yes | 24c | 1,439$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed No | 78c | 1,390$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.37 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 7c | 1,300$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.2wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x986a…4e19backed No | 80c | 1,253$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 1c | 1,159$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…c25fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,139$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae79…b9e0backed Yes | 27c | 1,115$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497c…d54ebacked No | 75c | 1,044$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a9…fd57backed No | 67c | 1,031$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…9a83backed No | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…7ffabacked Yes | 25c | 900$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 10c | 850.63$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.57 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +5.4wins | +0.45per pick | 14cpaid | +416.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes | 16c | 761.5$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…7b80backed Yes | 9c | 750$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 748$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.81 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2fad…8eeebacked Yes | 28c | 704.21$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19c4…edf9backed Yes | 14c | 691.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 21c | 679$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6402…2fa1backed Yes | 17c | 620$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c1…3c83backed Yes | 78c | 600.45$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x105a…b78fbacked No | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e09…d784backed No | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e84…c448backed No | 80c | 547.91$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed Yes | 13c | 544$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…c74dbacked Yes | 14c | 500$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…8acbbacked Yes | 27c | 487.33$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.45 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7707…e1f9backed No | 75c | 474$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 7c | 460.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x57d2…5cacbacked Yes | 12c | 363.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 68c | 358.99$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.88 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +11.3wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x70ca…fc4bbacked Yes | 35c | 339$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.98 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 63c | 300$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 78c | 283$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.69 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91b…4e2bbacked Yes | 22c | 272.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 74c | 264.48$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b50…50e4backed No | 75c | 261.7$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd112…6e13backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…5279backed Yes | 18c | 243.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf754…9771backed Yes | 43c | 233.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…f07cbacked No | 80c | 221.95$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2846…d10dbacked Yes | 32c | 216.72$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3857…6704backed Yes | 26c | 199.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe6…6adebacked Yes | 7c | 173.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1965…75e6backed Yes | 29c | 172.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…80fdbacked Yes | 22c | 167$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 77c | 149.85$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 25c | 130$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcafb…bfe3backed Yes | 13c | 129.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6470…646dbacked No | 77c | 125$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b6…48cabacked Yes | 32c | 123.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…5c8cbacked No | 65c | 109$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6216…5403backed No | 78c | 107$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…ceaabacked No | 79c | 103$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d32…4911backed Yes | 26c | 97.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69cd…06f3backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a5…6b7dbacked No | 79c | 77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96af…a0abbacked Yes | 21c | 71.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 20c | 65.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f5…7ebabacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0194…6a4abacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…c2c2backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x539a…0d4abacked Yes | 24c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…1c7bbacked No | 74c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 69c | 42.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…4eb7backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 76c | 37.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ed…523bbacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03e…6e50backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3dd…782dbacked Yes | 32c | 35.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ef…5614backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb17…5d7bbacked No | 70c | 27.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1d…2d6fbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8227…4b3cbacked No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pump.fun >$8B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?this page
- Pump.fun >$10B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?No won
- Pump.fun >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes won
- Pump.fun >$5B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.