Token Launches · resolved market
Pump.fun >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd28e4ed9c140b2077803f260c2267e6f3beb96640d270d16625bc07dc1108d31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,149,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $996,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,149,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 244 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x63b1…1676backed No | 7c | 151,846$10,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,579.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed No | 22c | 138,089$30,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,171.15 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…7430backed No | 10c | 111,059$11,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,629.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd4…8acabacked No | 15c | 103,986$15,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,597.87 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d8…fb2bbacked No | 15c | 95,226$14,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,193.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…24c2backed No | 14c | 62,952$8,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,509.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked No | 30c | 25,095$7,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,608.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed No | 1c | 24,402$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…114dbacked No | 0c | 22,539$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…6e2abacked No | 12c | 11,752$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…024bbacked Yes | 70c | 10,892$7,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,314.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40d…37d9backed Yes | 75c | 10,225$7,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,590.06 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35ab…44b2backed No | 17c | 9,789$1,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,654 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 32c | 9,436$3,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,026.71 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 9,245$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.16 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…a307backed No | 0c | 9,086$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986a…4e19backed No | 12c | 8,851$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…20bebacked No | 20c | 7,523$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…3e14backed Yes | 45c | 7,298$3,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,040.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7791…af80backed No | 16c | 6,330$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.5 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed No | 16c | 5,613$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f16…111fbacked No | 14c | 5,572$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x665a…f3ecbacked Yes | 66c | 5,403$3,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,830.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 56c | 5,368$3,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,020.54 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 76c | 5,138$3,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210.83 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.2wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 78c | 5,083$3,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.05 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…512bbacked Yes | 64c | 5,049$3,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,805.49 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2d…c5c0backed No | 27c | 3,739$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed No | 1c | 3,357$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 15c | 3,171$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.67 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…b277backed No | 13c | 3,148$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 2,990$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 67c | 2,733$1,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.38 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…201bbacked No | 15c | 2,700$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 8c | 2,607$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.8 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 1c | 2,578$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 57 | 1.8%1 W · 56 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…b3aebacked No | 16c | 2,556$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…c1aabacked No | 9c | 2,317$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfb…de50backed No | 8c | 2,300$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18fc…2f91backed No | 36c | 2,278$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…5c8cbacked No | 13c | 2,173$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…18abbacked No | 11c | 2,166$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 33c | 2,147$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.38 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 2,072$1,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.3 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a5…f290backed No | 36c | 2,016$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked No | 20c | 2,000$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.23 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc2…291dbacked No | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 27c | 1,722$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.45 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +11.3wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed No | 12c | 1,695$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…e691backed Yes | 60c | 1,678$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.71 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…bcbcbacked No | 31c | 1,642$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…a66ebacked Yes | 73c | 1,586$1,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d2…5cacbacked No | 19c | 1,540$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…2fbdbacked Yes | 70c | 1,492$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a2…a356backed No | 14c | 1,429$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked No | 29c | 1,410$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6743…4ccbbacked Yes | 58c | 1,343$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.27 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1e…f99fbacked No | 37c | 1,334$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fd…aae9backed No | 15c | 1,332$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9100…1bfbbacked No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd063…5ccdbacked No | 30c | 1,248$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.43 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked Yes | 71c | 1,233$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.79 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…1c7bbacked No | 32c | 1,210$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…0436backed No | 15c | 1,186$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde31…4f59backed No | 43c | 1,175$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.07 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf454…7bcbbacked No | 9c | 1,167$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2722…7e87backed No | 36c | 1,124$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked No | 38c | 1,114$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.82 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 23c | 1,018$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.88 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed No | 22c | 1,000$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde66…6981backed No | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed Yes | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x090f…4579backed Yes | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 9c | 983.7$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.24 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7126…c641backed No | 10c | 949.9$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb21…51bebacked Yes | 67c | 944.75$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…8acbbacked No | 34c | 888.41$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.15 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed Yes | 35c | 863.04$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.15 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +101%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 14c | 850$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda23…080ebacked No | 14c | 844.73$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.17 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08a9…fd57backed No | 8c | 818.4$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…0a62backed No | 13c | 800$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f06…d330backed No | 12c | 798.96$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcecf…24a3backed No | 33c | 774.15$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe2…8f16backed Yes | 77c | 762.67$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2af…2009backed No | 13c | 758.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…db15backed No | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24b…0544backed No | 24c | 711.89$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…83febacked No | 14c | 708.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 35c | 681.29$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.8 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…0b61backed No | 15c | 675$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ee…df72backed No | 3c | 668.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 53c | 664.08$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.06 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc943…7e16backed No | 9c | 663.78$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…f968backed No | 30c | 657.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 47c | 634.57$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.47 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b1…113fbacked No | 16c | 619.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…e211backed Yes | 68c | 588.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 16c | 576.31$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pump.fun >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?this page
- Pump.fun >$10B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?No won
- Pump.fun >$5B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes won
- Pump.fun >$8B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.