Token Launches · resolved market
Pump.fun >$5B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec6a85823567f2a8f60467e14b7de6105a4db7b846615e1a0fd936676c24d5ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $215,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $222,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed No | 40c | 37,157$15,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,039.01 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…657fbacked Yes | 60c | 22,588$13,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,144.27 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +200.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…da0abacked No | 20c | 19,430$3,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,915.19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +44%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…7430backed No | 9c | 17,964$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,614.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca62…fbfabacked Yes | 80c | 9,000$7,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,804.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090f…4579backed Yes | 63c | 7,326$4,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,726.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8389…a317backed Yes | 57c | 5,330$3,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,307.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 60c | 5,005$3,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,002 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed No | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked No | 19c | 4,081$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf626…8a12backed Yes | 77c | 3,847$2,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…5c8cbacked No | 28c | 3,840$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 19c | 3,081$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.57 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…55c3backed No | 40c | 3,028$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d2…5cacbacked No | 39c | 3,020$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 80c | 3,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.1 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 2,584$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d7…a53fbacked Yes | 72c | 2,215$1,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c01…67f8backed No | 48c | 2,150$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +128.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 56c | 2,027$1,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.42 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked Yes | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bb…a429backed Yes | 60c | 1,875$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.24 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6182…788ebacked No | 27c | 1,852$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d4…c481backed Yes | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…9a83backed No | 35c | 1,740$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 15c | 1,707$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.74 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0063…765ebacked Yes | 42c | 1,560$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72af…08b4backed Yes | 74c | 1,509$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ca…fc4bbacked Yes | 74c | 1,492$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.06 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…6e2abacked No | 26c | 1,301$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc5…67b3backed Yes | 78c | 1,275$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…688fbacked Yes | 79c | 1,267$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.22 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x939c…ad45backed Yes | 64c | 1,260$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…80fdbacked Yes | 53c | 1,090$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde66…6981backed Yes | 76c | 1,022$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 21c | 1,018$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.44 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb5…1f2dbacked No | 35c | 1,017$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc9…e444backed No | 25c | 1,013$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked No | 58c | 1,005$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…87a0backed Yes | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 41c | 999.9$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12f…0ecfbacked No | 49c | 986.84$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e7…1125backed Yes | 60c | 962$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…20bebacked No | 50c | 960.53$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked No | 8c | 949$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…8284backed No | 22c | 932.03$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…cc08backed Yes | 76c | 917.36$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d1…de32backed No | 46c | 896.75$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed81…82eebacked Yes | 76c | 853.81$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.82 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7018…98c2backed Yes | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcafb…bfe3backed Yes | 57c | 800$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c6…bf81backed No | 33c | 747.28$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4567…b970backed No | 41c | 721.63$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 62c | 711.32$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.85 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 47c | 692.28$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.77 | 119 | 42%50 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a97…40e1backed Yes | 75c | 689.04$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.04 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +269.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1e…f99fbacked No | 45c | 662.83$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 68c | 645.04$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.41 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x822e…5febbacked Yes | 78c | 641.36$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.36 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…0436backed No | 47c | 638.59$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 39c | 611.27$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.16 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f4…8b11backed No | 30c | 601.91$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 52c | 601$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…518fbacked No | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60e…d332backed Yes | 61c | 598.99$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.61 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba99…2a27backed No | 32c | 552.23$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a43…42e7backed Yes | 68c | 533.97$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.39 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -79%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb21…51bebacked Yes | 58c | 532.5$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…b850backed Yes | 59c | 529.23$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d7…add8backed Yes | 59c | 510$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…5d5abacked Yes | 60c | 500.39$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e9…05afbacked No | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…c74dbacked Yes | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked No | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…a537backed No | 41c | 497.48$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed Yes | 60c | 496.88$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.75 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33d5…bff2backed Yes | 65c | 493$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb45…81c1backed Yes | 60c | 491.67$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4dd…eaa2backed Yes | 63c | 484.99$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.75 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed Yes | 70c | 477.88$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.88 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7707…e1f9backed No | 24c | 428$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b6…48cabacked Yes | 71c | 420$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa09…2084backed No | 38c | 405.23$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed No | 25c | 404.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f22…fdd3backed Yes | 62c | 402$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…5c3abacked Yes | 71c | 388.49$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…2cdebacked No | 26c | 379.41$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2501…472cbacked Yes | 79c | 378.65$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe847…fb8bbacked No | 38c | 368.15$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb381…921abacked Yes | 57c | 356.37$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f06…d330backed No | 8c | 340.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked No | 27c | 340.1$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.83 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 12cpaid | +180.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce2…2963backed No | 29c | 323.93$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6402…2fa1backed Yes | 62c | 323.64$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.91 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6f…25f8backed No | 31c | 320$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 74c | 310.33$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fd…aae9backed No | 33c | 306.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 18c | 304.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…b3aebacked No | 33c | 303.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pump.fun >$5B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?this page
- Pump.fun >$10B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?No won
- Pump.fun >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes won
- Pump.fun >$8B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.