TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Seahawks vs. Jaguars

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Seahawksof Seahawks, Jaguars
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$997,021
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,060,807

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $997,021 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 758 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a72…33eebacked Seahawks79c109,133$86,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,838.3530043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0549…c052backed Jaguars49c104,700$51,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,302.995855.2%32 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Seahawks55c84,696$46,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,177.1147738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Seahawks51c61,000$31,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,89010026%26 W · 74 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Seahawks51c60,461$30,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,688.8216836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Seahawks72c46,990$33,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,088.5741947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Jaguars25c38,000$9,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,657.3110333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Jaguars49c36,342$17,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,801.3341851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Seahawks51c34,337$17,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,825.2322950.2%115 W · 114 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Jaguars48c30,672$14,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,722.5331240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Jaguars20c29,158$5,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,791.4268446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Jaguars49c25,000$12,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,2504637%17 W · 29 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2e98…1f51backed Jaguars49c21,000$10,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,289.773652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Seahawks51c17,500$8,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,574.868946.1%41 W · 48 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Seahawks52c15,875$8,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,62011649.1%57 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf0…153ebacked Jaguars49c13,137$6,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,437.281154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-24.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d47…d0a2backed Jaguars49c12,383$6,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,1261283.3%10 W · 2 L+3.5wins+0.29per pick54cpaid+53.3%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Jaguars49c12,000$5,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,829.9551352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Seahawks51c11,300$5,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,536.956965.2%45 W · 24 L+9.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8165…59d0backed Jaguars50c10,010$4,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,983.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Jaguars50c9,355$4,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,640.1883147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Jaguars49c8,377$4,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,104.9131350.2%157 W · 156 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Jaguars25c8,234$2,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,017.6514147.5%67 W · 74 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Seahawks51c8,105$4,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,959.6114951%76 W · 73 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a87…4e00backed Jaguars49c8,000$3,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9201942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Seahawks51c7,500$3,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6758959.6%53 W · 36 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Seahawks52c7,500$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,599.993452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Jaguars49c6,531$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20024053.8%129 W · 111 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Seahawks51c6,460$3,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,197.3520661.2%126 W · 80 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Jaguars32c6,400$2,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,04225744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Seahawks56c6,290$3,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,754.964247.6%20 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Jaguars48c5,558$2,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,667.861,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Seahawks70c5,529$3,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,661.2331056.8%176 W · 134 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Jaguars49c5,408$2,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,66014252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Seahawks65c5,012$3,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,772.3325956.8%147 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x164f…deb3backed Jaguars48c5,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4002556%14 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+31.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Seahawks52c4,762$2,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,285.765530.9%17 W · 38 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-46.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Jaguars15c4,703$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.3819235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b1…968abacked Jaguars26c4,588$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,211.837939.2%31 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Seahawks50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00034349.3%169 W · 174 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa46e…c3b5backed Seahawks52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,920475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick56cpaid+57.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef8b…8493backed Jaguars48c3,890$1,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,867.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d85…228ebacked Seahawks52c3,846$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,846.153056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Jaguars49c3,841$1,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,882.226645.5%30 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Jaguars49c3,813$1,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,859.3141248.5%200 W · 212 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x540c…a634backed Jaguars49c3,776$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8505549.1%27 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Seahawks53c3,670$1,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,739.2831854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe653…29d7backed Seahawks52c3,500$1,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,680250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x300b…0b45backed Jaguars49c3,500$1,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,71520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78cd…5aa0backed Seahawks52c3,500$1,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,680425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Jaguars25c3,500$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8908622.1%19 W · 67 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Jaguars25c3,452$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.0261148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8237…f562backed Seahawks52c3,400$1,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,632757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+28.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Jaguars48c3,369$1,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,617.1230743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Jaguars28c3,354$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9403815.8%6 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-75.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Jaguars20c3,309$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.3264747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Jaguars47c3,240$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,523.2217648.9%86 W · 90 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x383d…a9f2backed Seahawks51c3,218$1,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5796349.2%31 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07ca…fdafbacked Jaguars49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,470540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3134…1b18backed Jaguars50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5009152.7%48 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Seahawks51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47026547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Seahawks51c2,940$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,440.637350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e55…e3e2backed Jaguars17c2,923$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.811338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c0…69d0backed Jaguars43c2,800$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2005549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Seahawks75c2,595$1,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.7514349%70 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57fb…fb6ebacked Jaguars49c2,500$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…93fcbacked Jaguars48c2,500$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2002161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+40.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b02…f3d9backed Seahawks50c2,485$1,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,235.2521151.2%108 W · 103 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+28.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Seahawks51c2,459$1,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,215.8383447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Seahawks51c2,316$1,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,134.7332050.9%163 W · 157 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Seahawks66c2,238$1,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.3427348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd561…9423backed Jaguars48c2,210$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.7910467.3%70 W · 34 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6449…8e3bbacked Seahawks51c2,200$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,077.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bdadbacked Jaguars50c2,200$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Seahawks67c2,088$1,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.4319551.3%100 W · 95 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe649…589ebacked Jaguars50c2,040$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a90…8218backed Seahawks47c2,012$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.98557.6%49 W · 36 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Jaguars49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98017144.4%76 W · 95 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x730d…6cfabacked Jaguars49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9802240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x111c…2ac5backed Seahawks52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9602560%15 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+35%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb0f1…a92fbacked Jaguars49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick63cpaid-62.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Jaguars25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50014945.6%68 W · 81 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Jaguars49c2,000$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.2320646.1%95 W · 111 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Jaguars48c1,982$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.3624738.1%94 W · 153 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9faf…778cbacked Seahawks51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.781855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf05…70dabacked Seahawks52c1,923$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.0814763.9%94 W · 53 L+12.0wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x88f4…874abacked Seahawks52c1,923$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.081747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Jaguars1c1,888$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.884311.6%7 W · 424 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd82f…2088backed Seahawks51c1,765$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea6…03bebacked Jaguars50c1,760$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Seahawks51c1,600$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7843661.1%22 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Seahawks51c1,600$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78418044.4%80 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Seahawks50c1,500$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75039242.6%167 W · 225 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20da…e704backed Jaguars14c1,455$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.022821.4%6 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e9c…1115backed Jaguars42c1,437$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60050%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Jaguars28c1,434$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.5148847.5%232 W · 256 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ef5…325ebacked Seahawks52c1,346$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.1511154.1%60 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14cf…0856backed Seahawks51c1,172$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.418451.2%43 W · 41 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d7…ba4dbacked Jaguars50c1,132$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Seahawks50c1,111$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.57444.6%33 W · 41 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.